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Background In England in 2015/16, ambulance services responded to nearly 11 million calls. Ambulance Quality Indicators show that half of the patients receiving a response by telephone or face to face were not conveyed to an emergency department. A total of 11% of patients received telephone advice only. A total of 38% of patients were sent an ambulance but were not conveyed to an emergency department. For the 10 large ambulance services in England, rates of calls ending in telephone advice varied between 5% and 17%. Rates of patients who were sent an ambulance but not conveyed to an emergency department varied between 23% and 51%. Overall non-conveyance rates varied between 40% and 68%. Objective To explain variation in non-conveyance rates between ambulance services. Design A sequential mixed methods study with five work packages. Setting Ten of the 11 ambulance services serving > 99% of the population of England. Methods (1) A qualitative interview study of managers and paramedics from each ambulance service, as well as ambulance commissioners (totalling 49 interviews undertaken in 2015). (2) An analysis of 1 month of routine data from each ambulance service (November 2014). (3) A qualitative study in three ambulance services with different published rates of calls ending in telephone advice (120 hours of observation and 20 interviews undertaken in 2016). (4) An analysis of routine data from one ambulance service linked to emergency department attendance, hospital admission and mortality data (6 months of 2013). (5) A substudy of non-conveyance for people calling 999 with breathing problems. Results Interviewees in the qualitative study identified factors that they perceived to affect non-conveyance rates. Where possible, these perceptions were tested using routine data. Some variation in non-conveyance rates between ambulance services was likely to be due to differences in the way rates were calculated by individual services, particularly in relation to telephone advice. Rates for the number of patients sent an ambulance but not conveyed to an emergency department were associated with patient-level factors: age, sex, deprivation, time of call, reason for call, urgency level and skill level of attending crew. However, variation between ambulance services remained after adjustment for patient-level factors. Variation was explained by ambulance service-level factors after adjustment for patient-level factors: the percentage of calls attended by advanced paramedics [odds ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.07], the perception of ambulance service staff and commissioners that advanced paramedics were established and valued within the workforce of an ambulance service (odds ratio 1.84, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.33), and the perception of ambulance service staff and commissioners that senior management was risk averse regarding non-conveyance within an ambulance service (odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.98). Limitations Routine data from ambulance services are complex and not consistently collected or analysed by ambulance services, thus limiting the utility of comparative analyses. Conclusions Variation in non-conveyance rates between ambulance services in England could be reduced by addressing variation in the types of paramedics attending calls, variation in how advanced paramedics are used and variation in perceptions of the risk associated with non-conveyance within ambulance service management. Linking routine ambulance data with emergency department attendance, hospital admission and mortality data for all ambulance services in the UK would allow comparison of the safety and appropriateness of their different non-conveyance rates. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

IMPORTANCE Dentists in the United States are under pressure from orthopedic surgeons and their patients with prosthetic joints to provide antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures (IDP) to reduce the risk of late prosthetic joint infection (LPJI). This has been a common practice for decades, despite a lack of evidence for an association between IDP and LPJI, a lack of evidence of antibiotic prophylaxis efficacy, cost of providing antibiotic prophylaxis, and risk of both adverse drug reactions and the potential for promoting antibiotic resistance. OBJECTIVE To quantify any temporal association between IDP and subsequent LPJI. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThis cohort study used a case-crossover and time trend design to examine any potential association between IDP and LPJI. The population of England (55 million) was chosen because antibiotic prophylaxis has never been recommended to prevent LPJI in England, and any association between IDP and LPJI would therefore be fully exposed. All patients admitted to hospitals in England for LPJI from December 25, 2011, through March 31, 2017, and for whom dental records were available were included. Analyses were performed between May 2018 and June 2021. EXPOSURES Exposure to IDP. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESThe main outcome was the incidence of IDP in the 3 months before LPJI hospital admission (case period) compared with the incidence in the 12 months before that (control period). RESULTSA total of 9427 LPJI hospital admissions with dental records (mean [SD] patient age, 67.8 [13.1] years) were identified, including 4897 (52.0%) men and 4529 (48.0%) women. Of these, 2385 (25.3%) had hip prosthetic joints, 3168 (33.6%) had knee prosthetic joints, 259 (2.8%) had other prosthetic joints, and 3615 (38.4%) had unknown prosthetic joint types. There was no significant temporal association between IDP and subsequent LPJI. Indeed, there was a lower incidence of IDP in the 3 months prior to LPJI (incidence rate ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.96; P = .002). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEThese findings suggest that there is no rationale to administer antibiotic prophylaxis before IDP in patients with prosthetic joints.

Circumscribed delusional beliefs can follow brain injury. We suggest that these involve anomalous perceptual experiences created by a deficit to the person's perceptual system, and misinterpretation of these experiences due to biased reasoning. We use the Capgras delusion (the claim that one or more of one's close relatives has been replaced by an exact replica or impostor) to illustrate this argument. Our account maintains that people voicing this delusion suffer an impairment that leads to faces being perceived as drained of their normal affective significance, and an additional reasoning bias that leads them to put greater weight on forming beliefs that are observationally adequate rather than beliefs that are a conservative extension of their existing stock. We show how this position can integrate issues involved in the philosophy and psychology of belief, and examine the scope for mutually beneficial interaction.

Summary Background The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) has been widely but inconsistently applied in published studies, particularly in how diagnostic information recorded in previous hospital admissions is used in its construction. We aimed to assess how many previous admissions should be considered when constructing the HFRS and the influence of frailty risk on long length of stay, in-hospital mortality, and 30-day readmission. Methods This is a retrospective observational cohort study of patients aged 75 years or older who had at least one emergency admission to any of 49 hospital sites in the Yorkshire and Humber region of England, UK. We constructed multiple versions of the HFRS for each patient, each form incorporating diagnostic data from progressively more previous admissions in its construction within a 1-year or 2-year window. We assessed the ability of each form of the HFRS to predict long length of stay (>10 days), in-hospital death, and 30-day readmission. Findings Between April 1, 2013, and March 31, 2017, 282 091 patients had 675 155 hospital admissions. Regression analyses assessing the different constructions of HFRS showed that the form constructed with diagnostic information recorded in the current and previous two admissions within the preceding 2 years performed best for predicting all three outcomes. Under this construction, 263 432 (39·0%) of 674 615 patient admissions were classified as having low frailty risk, for whom 33 333 (12·7%) had a long length of stay, 10 145 (3·9%) died in hospital, and 45 226 (17·2%) were readmitted within 30 days. By contrast with those patients with low frailty risk, for those with intermediate frailty risk, the probability was 2·5-times higher (95% CI 2·4 to 2·6) for long length of stay, 2·17-times higher (2·1 to 2·2) for in-hospital death, and 0·7% higher (0·5 to 1) for readmission. For patients with high frailty risk, the probability was 4·3-times higher (4·2 to 4·5) for long length of stay, 2·48-times higher (2·4 to 2·6) for in-hospital death, and −1% (−1·2 to −0·5) lower for readmission than those with low frailty risk. The intermediate and high frailty risk categories were more important predictors of long length of stay than any of the other rich set of control variables included in our analysis. These categories also proved to be important predictors of in-hospital mortality, with only the Charlson Comorbidity Index offering greater predictive power. Interpretation We recommend constructing the HFRS with diagnostic information from the current admission and from the previous two admissions in the preceding 2 years. This HFRS form was a powerful predictor of long length of stay and in-hospital mortality, but less so of emergency readmissions. Funding National Institute of Health Research.

BackgroundTools proposed to triage patient acuity in COVID-19 infection have only been validated in hospital populations. We estimated the accuracy of five risk-stratification tools recommended to predict severe illness and compared accuracy to existing clinical decision making in a prehospital setting.MethodsAn observational cohort study using linked ambulance service data for patients attended by Emergency Medical Service (EMS) crews in the Yorkshire and Humber region of England between 26 March 2020 and 25 June 2020 was conducted to assess performance of the Pandemic Respiratory Infection Emergency System Triage (PRIEST) tool, National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), WHO algorithm, CRB-65 and Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS) in patients with suspected COVID-19 infection. The primary outcome was death or need for organ support.ResultsOf the 7549 patients in our cohort, 17.6% (95% CI 16.8% to 18.5%) experienced the primary outcome. The NEWS2 (National Early Warning Score, version 2), PMEWS, PRIEST tool and WHO algorithm identified patients at risk of adverse outcomes with a high sensitivity (>0.95) and specificity ranging from 0.3 (NEWS2) to 0.41 (PRIEST tool). The high sensitivity of NEWS2 and PMEWS was achieved by using lower thresholds than previously recommended. On index assessment, 65% of patients were transported to hospital and EMS decision to transfer patients achieved a sensitivity of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.85) and specificity of 0.39 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.40).ConclusionUse of NEWS2, PMEWS, PRIEST tool and WHO algorithm could improve sensitivity of EMS triage of patients with suspected COVID-19 infection. Use of the PRIEST tool would improve sensitivity of triage without increasing the number of patients conveyed to hospital.

ObjectiveAntibiotic prophylaxis has been recommended for patients at increased risk of infective endocarditis (IE) undergoing specific invasive procedures (IPs) despite a lack of data supporting its use. Therefore, antibiotic prophylaxis recommendations ceased in the mid-2000s for all but those at high IE risk undergoing invasive dental procedures. We aimed to quantify any association between IPs and IE.MethodsAll 14 731 IE hospital admissions in England between April 2010 and March 2016 were identified from national admissions data, and medical records were searched for IP performed during the 15-month period before IE admission. We compared the incidence of IP during the 3 months immediately before IE admission (case period) with the incidence during the preceding 12 months (control period) to determine whether the odds of developing IE were increased in the 3 months after certain IP.ResultsThe odds of IE were increased following permanent pacemaker and defibrillator implantation (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.85, p<0.001), extractions/surgical tooth removal (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.76, p=0.047), upper (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.85, p<0.001) and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.35 to 2.04, p<0.001) and bone marrow biopsy (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.69, p=0.039). Using an alternative analysis, bronchoscopy (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.68, p=0.049) and blood transfusions/red cell/plasma exchange (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.35, p=0.012) were also associated with IE.ConclusionsThis study identifies a significant association between specific IPs (permanent pacemaker and defibrillator implantation, dental extraction, gastrointestinal endoscopy and bronchoscopy) and subsequent IE that warrants re-evaluation of current antibiotic prophylaxis recommendations to prevent IE in high IE risk individuals.

BackgroundSome patients calling ambulance services (known as Emergency Medical Services internationally) are not transported to hospital. In England, national ambulance quality indicators show considerable variation in non-transport rates between the ten large regional ambulance services. The aim of this study was to explain variation between ambulance services in two types of non-transport: discharge at scene and telephone advice.MethodsMixed model logistic regressions using one month of data (November 2014) from the Computer Aided Despatch systems of the ten large regional ambulance services in England.Results41% (251 677/615 815) of patients calling ambulance services were not transported to hospital. Most were discharged at scene after attendance by an ambulance (29% n = 182 479) and a small percentage were given telephone advice (7% n = 40 679). Discharge at scene rates varied by patient-level factors e.g. they were higher for elderly patients, where the reason for calling was falls, and for patients attended by paramedics with extended skills. These patient-level factors did not explain variation between ambulance services. After adjustment for patient-level factors, the following ambulance service level factors explained variation in discharge at scene rates: proportion of patients attended by paramedics with extended skills (odds ratio 1.05 (95% CI 1.04, 1.07)), the perception of ambulance service staff that paramedics with extended skills were established and valued within the workforce (odds ratio 1.84 (1.45, 2.33), and the perception of ambulance service staff that senior management viewed non-transport as risky (odds ratio 0.78 (0.63, 0.98)). Variation in telephone advice rates could not be explained.ConclusionsVariation in discharge at scene rates was explained by differences in workforce configuration and managerial motivation, factors that are largely modifiable by ambulance services.