The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility

Espenshade, Thomas J.; Guzman, Juan Carlos; Westoff, Charles F.

doi:10.1023/b:popu.0000020882.29684.8e

Cited by 60 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…In the second population scenario (Pop_NS) the population size was assumed to follow the nonsteady state UN Medium Population Growth Scenario (UN 2004). This second scenario allows for a general decreasing population size as the current trends in population dynamics show fertility rates below the 2.1 child per fertile woman needed to provide a steady state (Espenshade et al 2003).…”

Section: Population and Consumption Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Hägg

Lyon

Wällstedt

et al. 2013

AMBIO

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Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

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Section: Population and Consumption Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Hägg

Lyon

Wällstedt

et al. 2013

AMBIO

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“…In most contemporary developed countries, mortality below age 50 is now very low, and thus the replacement level of fertility is slightly above 2 births per woman (i.e., usually taken as 2.1) (see Espenshade et al 2003). Contemporary concerns about low fertility have resulted from period fertility rates well below this level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

2006

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In the past few decades, demographic concerns have shifted from rapid population growth fueled by high fertility to concerns of population decline produced by very low, sub-replacement fertility levels. Once considered a problem unique to Europe or developed nations, concerns now center on the global spread of low fertility. Nearly half of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility at or below replacement levels. Further, by the mid-twenty-first century three of four countries now described as developing are projected to reach or slip below replacement fertility. We review the research on low fertility through the predominant frameworks and theories used to explain it. These explanations range from decomposition and proximate determinant frameworks to grand theories on the fundamental causes underlying the pervasiveness and spread of low fertility. We focus on the ability of theory to situate previous and future findings and conclude with directions for furthur research.

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“…However, current population studies show that this is not the case. It is generally estimated that an aggregate fertility rate of between at 2.05 and 2.1 is necessary to keep the global population stable over time [2,18] Therefore the objection would apply only in the case of those particular jurisdictions whose aim is to decrease population numbers for autochthonous reasons. However, in that case the objection must show on independent grounds that instituting a selective national population reduction policy without imposing the same policy on other countries is ethically defensible.…”

Section: Some Possible Objectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sex Selection: Some Ethical And Policy Considerations

Kluge

2007

Health Care Anal

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Sex selection, which refers to the attempt to choose or control the sex of a child prior to its birth, has become the subject of increasing ethical scrutiny and many jurisdictions have criminalized it except for serious sex-linked diseases or conditions that cannot easily be ameliorated or remedied. This paper argues that such a blanket prohibition is ethically unwarranted because it is based on a flawed understanding of the difference between sexist values and mere sex-oriented preferences. It distinguishes between ethics and public policy, and suggests a way of allowing preference-based sex selection as a matter of public policy without permitting value-based sex selection. It further argues that medically-based sex selection should be publicly funded but that preference-base sex selection should not be paid for by society, and that the prohibition against value-based sex selection should be enforced through legislation that controls the licensing of health care facilities and through disciplinary procedures against health care professionals.

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The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement Fertility

Cited by 60 publications

References 7 publications

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

Sex Selection: Some Ethical And Policy Considerations

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