Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century

Abstract

In the past few decades, demographic concerns have shifted from rapid population growth fueled by high fertility to concerns of population decline produced by very low, sub-replacement fertility levels. Once considered a problem unique to Europe or developed nations, concerns now center on the global spread of low fertility. Nearly half of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility at or below replacement levels. Further, by the mid-twenty-first century three of four countries now described as developing are projected to reach or slip below replacement fertility. We review the research on low fertility through the predominant frameworks and theories used to explain it. These explanations range from decomposition and proximate determinant frameworks to grand theories on the fundamental causes underlying the pervasiveness and spread of low fertility. We focus on the ability of theory to situate previous and future findings and conclude with directions for furthur research.

How do educational and occupational resources relate to the timing of family formation? A couple analysis of the Netherlands

“…A more substantive reason behind the female focus of fertility research is the theoretical notion that women are the driving force behind fertility decisions and the postponement of parenthood. This notion is based on the assumption that having a child involves greater investments of time and energy for women than for men, because even though women's educational attainment and labor force participation levels have increased significantly in recent decades, they continue to perform the majority of childcare and household tasks (Kühhirt 2011;Morgan and Taylor 2006). The birth of the first child is, indeed, associated with indirect and direct costs for women's careers in virtually all industrialized countries (Amuedo-Dorantes and Kimmel 2005; Budig and England 2001;Ellwood, Wilde, and Batchelder 2004;Gangl and Ziefle 2009).…”

The influence of the family network on the realisation of fertility intentions

“…Morgan and Taylor (2006) suggested that it is precisely this question that needs to be addressed in order to understand contemporary low fertility. Several researchers have argued that the postponement or abandoning of fertility intentions may be an underlying driver of low fertility (Hagewen and Morgan 2005;Spéder and Kapitany 2009).…”

Second birth rates across europe: interactions between women's level of education and child care enrolment

“…Cross-country fertility differences today are to a large extent due to differences in second-birth rates, and to a much lesser extent to an increasing rejection of parenthood. Apparently, the biological, psychological and social incentives remain strong enough for most people to want at least one child (Kohler et al 2006;Morgan and Taylor 2006). The gap between lowest-low and ordinary low fertility crucially depends on parity progression after the first birth: second-birth rates are typically low in the very low fertility countries of southern as well as central and eastern Europe.…”