The suitability of risk reduction indicators to inform dam safety management

Morales-Torres, Adrián; Lombillo, Armando José Serrano; Escuder‐Bueno, Ignacio; Altarejos‐García, Luis

doi:10.1080/15732479.2015.1136830

Cited by 17 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In our study, we employ the term 'single-category portfolio' to refer to this system. We illustrate this point through a case study provided in the study by Morales-Torres et al [73]. In the study, an organisation aimed at the effective prioritisation of safety investments on a portfolio of 27 dams.…”

Section: Diversity Of Assets and Intervention Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of asset management literature on multi-asset systems

Petchrompo

Parlikad

2019

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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This article gives an overview of the literature on asset management for multi-unit systems with an emphasis on two multi-asset categories: fleet (a system of homogeneous assets) and portfolio (a system of heterogeneous assets). As asset systems become more complicated, researchers have employed different terms to refer to their specific problems. With an objective to facilitate readers in searching conducive studies to their interests, this paper establishes a novel classification scheme for multi-unit systems in accordance with essential features such as diversity of assets and intervention options. Moreover, discerning differences in characteristics between cross-component and cross-asset interactions, we select three types of potential multi-component dependencies (performance, stochastic, and resource) and extend their notions to be applicable to multi-asset systems. The investigation into these dependencies enables the identification of problems that could exist in real industrial settings but are yet to be determined in academia. Ultimately, we delve into modelling approaches adopted by previous researchers. This comprehensive information allows us to offer the insights into the current trends in multi-asset maintenance. We expect that the output of this review paper will not only stress research gaps on multi-asset systems, but more importantly help systematise future studies on this aspect.

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Section: Diversity Of Assets and Intervention Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of asset management literature on multi-asset systems

Petchrompo

Parlikad

2019

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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“…As part of a quantitative risk analysis performed on 27 dams located in Spain (Ardiles et al, 2011;Morales-Torres et al, 2016), the individual risk model of the Santa Teresa dam was set up with iPresas software (iPresas, 2019) for hydrological loading scenarios. Such model can be represented using the influence diagram presented in In the first five nodes the model defines the probability of different dam-reservoir system scenarios prior to the arrival of the largest flood of the year.…”

Section: Dam Risk Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

Fluixá-Sanmartín¹,

Morales-Torres²,

Escuder‐Bueno³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than by a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.

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“…In this section, socioeconomic change is considered. The database of shared socioeconomic pathways developed by IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) is used for defining population trends in Oliva, based on national population trends for Spain in 2030 and 2050 (Nakicenovic et al, 2013). This database has been also used in recent local flood risk assessments (Ward et al, 2013a) in Europe.…”

Section: Effect Of Population Trends On Societal Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

Castillo-Rodríguez¹,

Escuder‐Bueno²,

Perales‐Momparler³

et al. 2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This article presents a method to incorporate and promote quantitative risk analysis to support local action planning against flooding. The proposed approach aims to provide a framework for local flood risk analysis, combining hazard mapping with vulnerability data to quantify risk in terms of expected annual affected population, potential injuries, number of fatalities, and economic damages. Flood risk is estimated combining GIS data of loads, system response, and consequences and using event tree modelling for risk calculation. The study area is the city of Oliva, located on the eastern coast of Spain. Results from risk modelling have been used to inform local action planning and to assess the benefits of structural and non-structural risk reduction measures. Results show the potential impact on risk reduction of flood defences and improved warning communication schemes through local action planning: societal flood risk (in terms of annual expected affected population) would be reduced up to 51 % by combining both structural and non-structural measures. In addition, the effect of seasonal population variability is analysed (annual expected affected population ranges from 82 to 107 %, compared with the current situation, depending on occupancy rates in hotels and campsites). Results highlight the need for robust and standardized methods for urban flood risk analysis replicability at regional and national scale.

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The suitability of risk reduction indicators to inform dam safety management

Cited by 17 publications

References 22 publications

A review of asset management literature on multi-asset systems

A review of asset management literature on multi-asset systems

Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

Enhancing local action planning through quantitative flood risk analysis: a case study in Spain

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