The Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Population in the Yangtze River Delta, China: An Urban Hierarchy Perspective

Abstract

The reason for changes in ranking within urban systems is the subject of much debate. Employing the census data from 1990 to 2020, this paper investigates population dynamics across urban hierarchies and its influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta. The results reveal an upward pattern of population dynamics and show that the advantages of high-ranking cities in population gathering are obvious, though they have declined recently. Based on a framework of urban amenity and the ridge regression model, the authors argue that concerns of residents in choosing cities in which to settle are gradually changing from economic opportunities to multidimensional amenities, finding that the influencing mechanisms vary across time. This is slightly different from Glaeser’s consumer cities; economic gains, as physiological needs, are always important for population growth. As higher-level needs, social and natural amenities, including Internet accessibility and urban green space, did not affect growth until the turn of the new millennium. In terms of negative factors, the ‘crowding-out effect’ of living costs and environmental pollution are not significant, as theoretically expected, suggesting that residents tend to care more about development opportunities than the negative impacts of living in high-ranking cities. Finally, policies are proposed to promote population growth and the coordinated development of large, medium, and small cities in the Yangtze River Delta.

Population Dynamics and Its Driving Forces in China from 2000 to 2020

“…This study analyzes the changes in regional population distribution from the perspective of population migration. Existing studies have shown that population migration is influenced by various factors such as natural, economic, political, and cultural factors [8,11]. In particular, physical geographic conditions, economic and social development, and policy factors shape the spatial patterns of population distribution and its changes.…”

“…The pattern of population dynamics among cities is closely related to population migration. Population migration generally follows two basic paths, namely upward and downward along the urban hierarchy, both of which have important effects on the inter-city population distribution dynamics [11][12][13]. For example, upward population migration brings about an increase in population in large cities and a decrease in population for small and medium-sized cities (SMSC), resulting in an uneven inter-city population distribution.…”

“…For example, upward population migration brings about an increase in population in large cities and a decrease in population for small and medium-sized cities (SMSC), resulting in an uneven inter-city population distribution. Conversely, downward population migration reduces the population of large cities in the core area and increases the population of SMSC in the periphery, which makes the inter-city population tend to be evenly distributed [11]. Different countries and regions have different population migration paths at different stages of development, with developed countries tending to follow downward migration paths, while upward migration paths are more common in developing countries [14][15][16][17].…”

“…Population mobility is determined by these two forces [27][28][29][30]. As a result, the differences in the natural environment, economic development level, employment opportunities, quality of public services, and administrative status between inflow and outflow areas have become important factors affecting regional population distribution changes [4,8,11]. Some scholars have used urban amenity theory to explore the factors influencing the population dynamics, which include economic amenity, social amenity, and natural amenity [11,31].…”

“…As a result, the differences in the natural environment, economic development level, employment opportunities, quality of public services, and administrative status between inflow and outflow areas have become important factors affecting regional population distribution changes [4,8,11]. Some scholars have used urban amenity theory to explore the factors influencing the population dynamics, which include economic amenity, social amenity, and natural amenity [11,31]. In fact, the impact of economic amenity and non-economic amenity (social amenity and natural amenity) on population dynamics, as emphasized by urban amenity theory, is similar to that of push-pull theory, which suggests that population migration is influenced by supply pull and demand push, i.e., population dynamics are influenced by various factors such as physical and geographical environment and economic and social development.…”