The spatial scale of time‐lagged population synchrony increases with species dispersal distance

Abstract

Aim Time‐lagged population synchrony, where spatially separated populations show similar fluctuations in abundance lagged over time, is thought to be driven by dispersal among populations. When dispersal is proportional to population density or positively density dependent, and individuals move readily from population A to population B, then as population A increases, the increased number of dispersers from population A to B will cause a subsequent increase in population B. If true, then time‐lagged synchrony should be strongest at a species’ typical dispersal distance, because the rate of exchange between populations will be greatest at that distance. Location United Kingdom (U. K.). Time period 1994 – 2013. Major taxa studied Birds (class Aves). Methods We estimated the spatial scale of 1‐year‐lagged population synchrony for 76 U.K. bird species, using 20 years of bird count data collected at 2,415 locations by the British Breeding Bird Survey. We then compared these spatial scales with published mean natal and breeding dispersal distance estimates (ranging from 0.1 to 25.8 km) for the same species based on an independent, large‐scale, mark–recapture dataset of 492,272 bird recaptures in Britain and Ireland. Results We found strong, positive cross‐species relationships between the spatial scale of time‐lagged synchrony and mean natal and breeding dispersal distance estimates from the mark–recapture study. However, average spatial scales of time‐lagged synchrony were more than 60 km longer than those from mark–recapture data, with scales ranging from 5 to 185 km. Main conclusions Ours is the first study to show that the spatial scale of time‐lagged synchrony increases with species dispersal distance. The scale of synchrony was larger than expected, probably because mark–recapture data underestimated the real dispersal distances, or because dispersal synchronizes populations at a larger spatial scale than that of dispersal (e.g., through formation of travelling waves), or both. Nevertheless, the strong relative concordance is consistent with the explanation that time‐lagged synchrony results from dispersal among populations.

Temporal patterns of dispersal-induced synchronization in population dynamics

“…The duration of desynchronizations is defined as the number of cycles of oscillations that the system spends in the desynchronized state. Note that synchronized state here is the one with near constant (but not necessarily zero) phase lag (which is in line with observations of non-zero lag population synchrony, e.g., Martin et al, 2017).…”

Spatial covariation of competing species in a fluctuating environment

“…Lande et al (1999) derived a simple equation showing that the spatial scale of population synchrony increases with the spatial scale of environmental correlations and with the spatial scale and rate of dispersal or individual movement, and decreases with the strength of local density dependence in the population dynamics. These general relationships have been supported by several empirical studies (Powney et al 2012, Cavanaugh et al 2013, Martin et al 2017.…”

Temporal scale of environmental correlations affects ecological synchrony

“…; Martin et al . ). Interactions with other synchronous species or synchronous age‐classes can also induce synchrony (Liebhold et al .…”

“…Spatial correlation in environmental variables that affect population growth can lead to synchrony, a phenomenon known as the 'Moran effect' (Moran 1953;Ranta et al 1997;Hudson & Cattadori 1999). Dispersal of individuals among populations can cause or enhance synchrony (Ranta et al 1995;Haydon & Steen 1997;Ripa 2000;Chevalier et al 2014;Martin et al 2017). Interactions with other synchronous species or synchronous age-classes can also induce synchrony (Liebhold et al 2004;Ripa & Ranta 2007).…”