The role of oil and gas in Kazakhstan's foreign policy: Looking east or west?

Abstract

This study examines the role of oil and gas in the making of Kazakhstan's foreign policy. It argues that Kazakhstan has been following a multi-vector foreign policy in relation to its oil-led development and the geopolitics of exporting oil from this landlocked region. The significance of geopolitical considerations and the resulting pragmatism of Kazakhstan's leadership only allow a limited role for national identity and internal political dynamics in the making of its foreign policy. Kazakhstan's geopolitical imperatives force the country to keep good relations with Russia and China as well as with the US and the EU, as counterbalancing partners. FOLLOWING THE INAUGURATION IN DECEMBER 2005 OF an oil pipeline running from Atasu, located in northwestern Kazakhstan, to Alashankou, in China's northwestern Xinjiang (Eastern Turkestan) region, there have been growing concerns about Kazakhstan's foreign policy orientation and its increasing cooperation with China. Despite the long-sought agreement between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in June 2006 to transport increased production from the offshore Kashagan field of Kazakhstan to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, substantial talks on building a sea-bed pipeline to connect Kazakh oil to this pipeline are on hold. Rather, Kazakhstan will transport oil from Aktau to Baku by existing tankers and a new large-capacity tanker fleet. Thus, the reluctance of Kazakhstan to build a trans-Caspian pipeline has fuelled concerns over whether Kazakhstan is looking East or West. 1 Foreign policy making is influenced by numerous domestic and international factors. In Kazakhstan, for example, a wide range of determinants should be assessed in terms of their influence on foreign policy. These include the nature of the regime in its post-Soviet state-building process; questions of national identity; the influence of domestic groups, especially clans, on government policy; Kazakhstan's landlocked geography; the interests of neighbouring powers; and the investment of multinational corporations (MNCs) in the rich oil and gas. Above all however, it will be argued here, the questions of under what conditions and to what extent Kazakhstan's oil and gas The author would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier draft of this article and Hasan Ali Karasar and Paul Williams for their help in revising the article. 1 The trans-Caspian pipeline has been planned to be built underwater from the port of Kirik located 76 km from Aktau, Kazakhstan, to the Azerbaijani terminal at Dyunbendi, near Baku.

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“…9. In the 1997In the , 2000In the , 2002In the , 2004In the , 2005In the , 2007. Obviously, this is more applicable for the United States, Europe, and Asia than for the Islamic countries.…”

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“…In the Kazakh context Ipek 3 argues that one must take into account the impact of "the nature of the regime in its post-Soviet state-building process; questions of national identity; the influence of domestic groups, especially clans, on government policy; Kazakhstan's landlocked geography; the interests of neighbouring powers; and the investment of multinational corporations (MNCs) in the rich oil and gas." 4 Principally due to its resources and location, Kazakhstan quickly found itself at the time of independence facing a triangular foreign policy. The Kazakhs primarily had to deal with Moscow, Beijing and Washington before contemplating other capitals when formulating its independent foreign policy.…”

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