The response of Great Lakes water levels to future climate scenarios with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Angel, James R.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.

doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2009.09.006

Cited by 153 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…For example, early studies considering GCM projections under the 2xCO 2 atmospheric scenarios report a 23 to 51 % reduction in NBS and a decrease in lake levels ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 m (Croley 1990;Hartmann 1990). Similarly, a study by Angel and Kunkel (2010), using more than 500 runs from 23 GCMs under the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 emissions scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000), also suggests decline in annual lake levels. The projected median changes in lake levels for Lake Michigan-Huron for 2080-2094 were −0.25, −0.28, and −0.41 m for the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many of the historical studies addressing this issue are based on the so-called Bchange factor^method, which is typically applied to a suite of models known as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS; e.g. , Croley 1990;Hartmann 1990;Lofgren et al 2002;Angel and Kunkel 2010;Hayhoe et al 2010). The change factors in climate variables, typically derived from different Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, serve to perturb observed historical time series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

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Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydrometeorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041-2070) and present (1971-1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

et al. 2015

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“…Therefore, these lakes are regarded as sensitive indicators of global climate change (Guo et al, 2003;Hu et al, 2007) and variations in the level and area of alpine lakes reflect regional change . Moreover, alpine lakes are important water resources in many arid and semiarid regions (Fan and Li, 1984;Qin, 1999) and changes in these resources have significant effects on local climate (Hu et al, 2002;Angel and Kunkel, 2010). Over the past 40 years, climate change has been an important factor in the evolution of alpine lakes (Shi and Zhang, 1995) because the water cycle in drainage basins has being changed related to rainfall, evaporation, and meltwater from glaciers and snow (Ma et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 40 years

et al. 2016

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Inland lakes and alpine glaciers are important water resources on the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding their variation is crucial for accurate evaluation and prediction of changes in water supply and for retrieval and analysis of climatic information. Data from previous research on 35 alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were used to investigate changes in lake water level and area. In terms of temporal changes, the area of the 35 alpine lakes could be divided into five groups: rising, falling-rising, rising-falling, fluctuating, and falling. In terms of spatial changes, the area of alpine lakes in the Himalayan Mountains, the Karakoram Mountains, and the Qaidam Basin tended to decrease; the area of lakes in the Naqu region and the Kunlun Mountains increased; and the area of lakes in the Hoh Xil region and Qilian Mountains fluctuated. Changes in lake water level and area were correlated with regional changes in climate. Reasons for changes in these lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed, including precipitation and evaporation from meteorological data, glacier meltwater from the Chinese glacier inventories. Several key problems, e.g. challenges of monitoring water balance, limitations to glacial area detection, uncertainties in detecting lake water-level variations and variable region boundaries of lake change types on the Tibetan Plateau were discussed. This research has most indicative significance to regional climate change.

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“…What is the utility of having so many models, generating hundreds of scenarios (e.g. 565 in the study by Angel & Kunkel, 2009)? How does one interpret these widely disparate results, even if these models had some useful predictive capabilities, possibly for temperature increase?…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed?

Kundzewicz

Stakhiv²

2010

Hydrological Sciences Journal

206

122

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The response of Great Lakes water levels to future climate scenarios with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Cited by 153 publications

References 8 publications

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Present and future Laurentian Great Lakes hydroclimatic conditions as simulated by regional climate models with an emphasis on Lake Michigan-Huron

Changes in inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 40 years

Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed?

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