Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed?

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

doi:10.1080/02626667.2010.513211

Cited by 206 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The WaterGAP model provides a scientifically-sound basis for future hydrological predictions when coupled with stakeholder-based scenarios. We are mindful of the uncertainties of using the GCM results (Anagnostopoulos et al 2010) as well as downscaling of the GCM scenarios to hydrological models (Kundzewicz and Stakhiv 2010), and of the importance of other variables in determining wetlands' character and ultimately the services they provide, including temperature, geology and lithology, and management practices. It means that future case studies for different hydrological, morphological and ecological settings are required to understand the underlying mechanisms and develop mitigation strategies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Broad-scale ecosystem services of European wetlands—overview of the current situation and future perspectives under different climate and water management scenarios

Okruszko

Duel

Acreman

et al. 2011

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Okruszko, T., Duel, H., Acreman, M., Grygoruk, M., Flörke, M. and Schneider, C., 2011. Broad-scale ecosystem services of European wetlands-overview of the current situation and future perspectives under different climate and water management scenarios. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56 (8), 1501-1517. Abstract An appropriate hydrological regime within a wetland is essential to maintain its goods and services. This regime is related to the source of the water, which differs for particular kinds of wetlands. This paper presents an overview of the ecosystem services of European wetlands, based on a representative sample of 102 protected wetlands larger than 5000 ha, and the implications of hydrological alterations caused by future climate and socioeconomic changes. Six major ecosystem services of wetlands were assessed namely: biodiversity in terms of plants and animals, biomass production, nutrient removal, carbon storage and fish production. Data showed that, on average, four services were present in each wetland. The impact of climate change, water management and land-use change was examined under different future scenarios. Major potential changes in hydrological regime (i.e. precipitation, groundwater recharge and river flow) were quantified up to the 2050s using simulated runoff and river flow data of the WaterGAP model driven by the climate input of two different general circulation models (GCMs), IPCM4 and MIMR. Thresholds of hydrological change that would endanger each ecosystem service were identified. The impacts of future scenarios were distributed across Europe with potential threats to ecosystem services of European wetlands resulting in the loss of between 26 and 46% of all identified ecosystem services in 2050. The models and scenarios suggest that the most significant loss of ecosystem services is likely to occur in Central Europe (Hungary, Germany, France, Belarus, Poland). In general, the most fragile services (the largest number lost) are projected to be those connected to the surface water dynamics-mostly the services of wetland birds and fish spawning. Ecosystem services dependent on groundwater dynamics and water balance changes are seemingly more buffered against the expected hydrological stress.Key words wetlands; climate change; hydrology; ecosystem services; water management Les services écosystémiques à grande échelle des zones humides européennes: aperçu de la situation actuelle et perspectives sous différents scénarios climatiques et de gestion de l'eau Résumé Un régime hydrologique approprié des zones humides est essentiel pour maintenir leur valeur et leurs services. Ce régime est lié à l'origine de leurs eaux, qui est particulière pour chaque zone humide. Cet article présente un aperçu des services des écosystèmes des zones humides européennes, fondé sur un échantillon représentatif de 102 zones humides protégées de plus de 5000 ha, et les implications des modifications hydrologiques causées par le climat futur et les évolutions socio-économiques. ...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Broad-scale ecosystem services of European wetlands—overview of the current situation and future perspectives under different climate and water management scenarios

Okruszko

Duel

Acreman

et al. 2011

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…It is well known that present climate models contain considerable biases in their climatology and do not fit gridded station data well (Kundzewicz and Stakhiv 2010). To reduce the GCM biases, various "bias correction" methods were developed.…”

Section: Projections For 2050smentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Anagnostopoulos et al (2010) showed that GCMs, on their own, cannot accurately reconstruct the past even at sub-continental to continental scales, and perform poorly at regional scales. This is one of the reasons why Kundzewicz and Stakhiv (2010) concluded that climate models are not yet "ready for prime time" in water resources management applications. In contrast, the hydrological models widely used by the water science community have undergone decades of peer review, testing and application in a wide range of conditions all over the globe.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff

Piniewski

Voß

Bärlund

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040-2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options.

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“…Due to the reported and widely-discussed uncertainty of GCMs and RCMs (e.g. Anagnostopoulos et al 2010;Kundzewicz and Stakhiv 2010;Wilby 2005Wilby , 2010, the authors of this paper state that the results presented herein on prospective climate change (including hypothetical "mild" and "extreme" scenarios) should not be considered as forecasts, but as a scientifically and statistically-based background for the analysis of possible, climate-induced impacts on environmental and socio-economic aspects of the Biebrza Valley. The "mild" scenario ( Fig.…”

Section: Mild Vs Extremementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Induced Challenges for Wetlands: Revealing the Background for the Adaptive Ecosystem Management in the Biebrza Valley, Poland

Grygoruk

Biereżnoj-Bazille

Mazgajski

et al. 2013

Advances in Global Change Research

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Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed?

Cited by 206 publications

References 15 publications

Broad-scale ecosystem services of European wetlands—overview of the current situation and future perspectives under different climate and water management scenarios

Broad-scale ecosystem services of European wetlands—overview of the current situation and future perspectives under different climate and water management scenarios

Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff

Climate-Induced Challenges for Wetlands: Revealing the Background for the Adaptive Ecosystem Management in the Biebrza Valley, Poland

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