The water cycle over a given region is governed by many complex multiscale interactions and feedbacks, and their representation in climate models can vary in complexity. To understand which of the key processes require better representation, evaluation and validation of all components of the simulated water cycle are required. Adequate assessing of the simulated hydrological cycle over a given region is not trivial because observations for various water cycle components are seldom available at the regional scale.In this paper, a comprehensive validation method of the water budget components over a river basin is presented. In addition, the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle in the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) to a more realistic representation of the land surface processes, as well as radiation, cloud cover, and atmospheric boundary layer mixing is investigated. The changes to the physical parameterizations are assessed by evaluating the CRCM hydrological cycle over the Mississippi River basin. The first part of the evaluation looks at the basin annual means. The second part consists of the analysis and validation of the annual cycle of all water budget components. Finally, the third part is directed toward the spatial distribution of the annual mean precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff.Results indicate a strong response of the CRCM evapotranspiration and precipitation biases to the physical parameterization changes. Noticeable improvement was obtained in the simulated annual cycles of precipitation, evapotranspiration, moisture flux convergence, and terrestrial water storage tendency when more sophisticated physical parameterizations were used. Some improvements are also observed for the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation and evapotranspiration. The simulated runoff is less sensitive to changes in the CRCM physical parameterizations.
The maximum entropy production (MEP) model based on nonequilibrium thermodynamics and the theory of Bayesian probabilities was recently developed to model land surface fluxes, including soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration. This model requires few input data and ensures the closure of the surface energy balance. This study aims to test the capability of such a model to realistically simulate evapotranspiration (ET) over a wide range of climates and vegetation covers. A weighting coefficient is introduced to calculate total ET from soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration over partially vegetated land surfaces, resulting in the MEP-ET model. Using this coefficient, the model outputs are compared with in situ observations of ET at eight FLUXNET sites across the continental United States. Results confirm the close agreement between the MEP-ET predicted daily ET and the corresponding observations at sites characterized by moderately limited water availability. Poor ET results were obtained under high water stress conditions. A regulation parameter was therefore introduced in the MEP-ET model to properly take into account the effects of soil water stress on stomata, yielding the generalized MEP-ET model. This parameter considerably reduced model biases under water stress conditions for various heterogeneous land surface sites. The generalized MEP-ET model outperforms several popular ET models, including Penman–Monteith (PM), modified Priestley–Taylor–Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), and air-relative-humidity-based two-source model (ARTS) at all test sites.
The boreal forest will be strongly affected by climate change and in turn, these vast ecosystems may significantly impact global climatology and hydrology due to their exchanges of carbon and water with the atmosphere. It is now crucial to understand the intricate relationships between precipitation and evapotranspiration in these environments, particularly in less-studied locations characterized by a cold and humid climate. This study presents state-of-the-art measurements of energy and water budgets components over three years (2016)(2017)(2018) at the Montmorency Forest, Québec, Canada: a balsam fir boreal forest that receives ~1600 mm of precipitation annually (continental subarctic climate; Köppen classification subtype Dfc). Precipitation, evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration at the site are compared with observations from thirteen experimental sites around the world. These intercomparison sites (89 study-years) encompass various types of climate and vegetation (black spruces, jack pines, etc.) encountered in boreal forests worldwide. The Montmorency Forest stands out by receiving the largest amount of precipitation. Across all sites, water availability seems to be the principal evapotranspiration constraint, as precipitation tends to be more influential than potential evapotranspiration and other factors. This leads to the Montmorency Forest generating the largest amount of evapotranspiration, on average ~550 mm y −1 . This value appears to be an ecosystem maximum for evapotranspiration, which may be explained either by a physiological limit or a limited energy availability due to the presence of cloud cover. The Montmorency Forest water budget evacuates the precipitation excess mostly by watershed discharges, at an average rate of ~1050 mm y −1 , with peaks during the spring freshet. This behaviour, typical of mountainous headwater basins, necessarily influence downstream hydrological regimes to a large extent. This study provides a much needed insight in the hydrological regimes of a humid boreal-forested mountainous watershed, a type of basin rarely studied with precise energy and water budgets before.
Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydrometeorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041-2070) and present (1971-1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.
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