The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands

Marshall, Nadine; Gordon, Iain J.; Ash, Andrew

doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9962-y

Cited by 105 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…In this study, low population sizes in St Helens and Bowen were also found to correspond to low natural (through past and current use) and human capital and higher resource dependence. Similar results have been found in studies focusing on rural resource dependent communities including graziers in northern Queensland (Marshall et al 2011) and rural and resource-based communities in Canada (McLeman et al 2011), where a reduction in resource dependence can enhance adaptive capacity. Another Canadian study found fishing dependent communities consistently had low in-migration, high rates of poverty and unemployment, and low family income and educational attainment (Stedman et al 2004).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…For example, the success of a community-led or industry-led initiative may depend on the support and capacity of individuals (Marshall et al 2012). Individuals that have a higher capacity to incorporate change into their working lives are more likely to effectively trade-off the short-term costs of change and future limitations on productivity (Marshall et al 2011). For these people, change may not be seen as a disturbance, but as an opportunity for the reorganization of resources, and for the renewal of their business's organization and activities (Darnhofer et al 2010).…”

Section: Adaptation and The Capacity To Adaptmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, individuals or communities with similar resources may not adapt to climate change with equal success because they can use the resources in varying ways http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art35/ resulting in different adaptive outcomes (Marshall et al 2011). Empirical evidence suggests that adaptation is highly contextspecific (Risbey et al 1999, Wolf 2011) and the resource levels of different communities must be understood to gauge adaptive capacity.…”

Section: Adaptation and The Capacity To Adaptmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Measuring the vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems: a prerequisite for the identification of climate change adaptations

Metcalf¹,

Putten²,

Frusher³

et al. 2015

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Reducing the vulnerability of coastal communities to marine climate change requires that communities have some intrinsic capacity to adapt. To assist adaptation planning and the implementation of adaptation strategies, identifying barriers and enablers to adaptation is important. Adaptive capacity, resource dependence, local climate change exposure and biological sensitivity were used to assess socioeconomic vulnerability to climate change in three Australian coastal communities: St Helens, Tasmania; Bowen, Queensland; and Geraldton, Western Australia. Higher adaptive capacity was associated with larger population size (i.e., Geraldton) whereas greater resource dependence, and lower human and natural capital were associated with smaller populations (St Helens and Bowen). Socioeconomic vulnerability was greatly influenced by climate exposure and sensitivity with the moderately sized Bowen having the highest socioeconomic vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation strategies that utilized available assets, improved adaptive capacity, or reduced socioeconomic vulnerability were identified in partnership with local communities, including increased and diversified employment opportunities, the re-establishment of local fish markets, and improved education and communication. The level of resources, or "capitals," available to communities can indicate where barriers and enablers to adaptation exist. Identified barriers to adaptation included a heavy reliance on one sector for employment and a lack of physical capital. We demonstrate that knowledge of intrinsic community characteristics can be beneficial for prioritizing adaptation actions to reduce socioeconomic vulnerability to marine climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Adaptation and The Capacity To Adaptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Adaptation and The Capacity To Adaptmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Measuring the vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems: a prerequisite for the identification of climate change adaptations

Metcalf¹,

Putten²,

Frusher³

et al. 2015

E&S

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show abstract

“…Some research findings have indicated the usefulness of weather forecasts for reducing vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture to drought, flooding and extremely low or high temperature [22][23][24][25][26]. Initiatives to promote access of African farmers to weather forecasts include formation of several regional Climate Outlook Forums (COFs) in the late 1990s [27][28][29][30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

Oyekale

2015

Sustainability

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Unfavorable weather currently ranks among the major challenges facing agricultural development in many African countries. Impact mitigation through access to reliable and timely weather forecasts and other adaptive mechanisms are foremost in Africa's policy dialogues and socio-economic development agendas. This paper analyzed the factors influencing access to forecasts on incidence of pests/diseases (PD) and start of rainfall (SR). The data were collected by Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and analyzed with Probit regression separately for East Africa, West Africa and the combined dataset. The results show that 62.7% and 56.4% of the farmers from East and West Africa had access to forecasts on start of rainfall, respectively. In addition, 39.3% and 49.4% of the farmers from East Africa indicated that forecasts on outbreak of pests/diseases and start of rainfall were respectively accompanied with advice as against 18.2% and 41.9% for West Africa. Having received forecasts on start of rainfall, 24.0% and 17.6% of the farmers from East and West Africa made decisions on timing of farming activities respectively. Probabilities of having access to forecasts on PD significantly increased with access to formal education, farm income and previous exposure to climatic shocks. Furthermore, probabilities of having access to forecasts on SR significantly increased (p < 0.05) with access to business income, radio and perception of more erratic rainfall, among others. It was recommended that promotion of informal education among illiterate farmers would enhance their climatic resilience, among others.

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“…This illustrates the importance of understanding skill in user uptake of such products [6][7][8]. However, accuracy, lead time, and appropriate spatial and temporal scale of S2D climate forecast information may not be the main (or only) factors influencing user uptake; potential economic and environmental benefits may be of greater importance [9]. In addition, probabilistic (ensemble) prediction systems are more commonly used in medium-range applications, bringing additional challenges in communicating forecast information to end-users.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Skill for Impacts in Seasonal to Decadal Climate Forecasts

Falloon

Fereday²,

Stringer³

et al. 2013

J Geol Geosci

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Despite the recent effort to develop underpinning climate prediction science for seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate predictions, there has been relatively little uptake and use of S2D climate forecasts by users for decision making in Europe [1]. On the other hand, there is a much longer tradition in applying seasonal climate forecast information for user applications in other parts of the World, notably in Africa, the USA and Australia [1,2]; "one notable exception" is the use of precipitation forecasts for hydropower generation management by Electricte de France (EDF Energy) [3,4]. In part, this is related to the relatively limited skill of S2D climate forecasts in Europe; in contrast predictability in decadal hindcasts (forecasts of the past) is greatest in the Tropics [5]. This illustrates the importance of understanding skill in user uptake of such products [6][7][8]. However, accuracy, lead time, and appropriate spatial and temporal scale of S2D climate forecast information may not be the main (or only) factors influencing user uptake; potential economic and environmental benefits may be of greater importance [9]. In addition, probabilistic (ensemble) prediction systems are more commonly used in medium-range applications, bringing additional challenges in communicating forecast information to end-users.The use of basic S2D climate forecast outputs (e.g. temperature, precipitation etc) has significant potential to support both shorterterm decision making (thus helping avoid potential risks and losses, and optimize profits), and longer-term climate adaptation plans in numerous sectors (e.g. agriculture, water, health and energy [10]) and as noted above these products are already widely used in some regions of the World. Further benefit could also be realized by providing information more directly relevant to potential users, such as changes in extreme rainfall events, heat-waves, crop yields and river flows, which we refer to here as "impacts". In addition, further processing of direct S2D forecast outputs and the use of impact models may improve the usability of S2D forecasts with weak skill [3,4]. However, as noted above, the skill of S2D forecasts for impacts (as opposed to generic assessments of weather and climate skill) may limit the usability of S2D impacts products. S2D predictions of weather and climate can be derived both from statistical (or empirical) and dynamic models [7]. The former approach is usually based on regional historic relationships between climate variables; most recent dynamic approaches use fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs). Some S2D forecasting systems, particularly the CGCM approaches, may include impact-relevant outputs directly ("online" approaches), for example via river flow models, soil moisture calculations, or estimates of vegetation productivity. Validation and skill assessment in these systems may also provide valuable information on the overall performance of the seasonal prediction system itself. For example, rivers integrate land hydrolo...

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The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands

Cited by 105 publications

References 80 publications

Measuring the vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems: a prerequisite for the identification of climate change adaptations

Measuring the vulnerability of marine social-ecological systems: a prerequisite for the identification of climate change adaptations

Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

Assessing Skill for Impacts in Seasonal to Decadal Climate Forecasts

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