Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4°C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO 2 ), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO 2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4°C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.errestrial vegetation is central to many components of the coupled Earth system, in particular the global carbon cycle, biophysical land-atmosphere exchanges, atmospheric chemistry, and the diversity of life with the numerous ecosystem services this engenders. However, vegetation is very sensitive to climate and levels of atmospheric CO 2 , the primary substrate for plant growth. Therefore, it is imperative that we are capable of anticipating the potential responses of global terrestrial vegetation to future changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry. However, a comprehensive, consistent analysis of impacts, taking into account uncertainty in both climate models and impacts models, has so far been lacking. The recent availability of representative concentration pathway (RCP)-driven climate model simulations, with bias-corrected outputs produced within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) (1), allows such an analysis.Vegetation biomass, productivity, and the competitive abilities of different plant types are all influenced by climate and atmospheric CO 2 . Higher temperatures will increase growing season lengths, metabolic rates, and rates of nitrogen mineralization at high latitudes and altitudes, there...

In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology. Plant stomata generally open less widely under increased carbon dioxide concentration, which reduces transpiration and thus leaves more water at the land surface. This driver of change in the climate system, which we term 'physiological forcing', has been detected in observational records of increasing average continental runoff over the twentieth century. Here we use an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model that includes a vegetation component to assess the contribution of physiological forcing to future changes in continental runoff, in the context of uncertainties in future precipitation. We find that the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is comparable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change (11 +/- 6 per cent). Assessments of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on the hydrological cycle that only consider radiative forcing will therefore tend to underestimate future increases in runoff and overestimate decreases. This suggests that freshwater resources may be less limited than previously assumed under scenarios of future global warming, although there is still an increased risk of drought. Moreover, our results highlight that the practice of assessing the climate-forcing potential of all greenhouse gases in terms of their radiative forcing potential relative to carbon dioxide does not accurately reflect the relative effects of different greenhouse gases on freshwater resources.

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Abstract. We describe the HadGEM2 family of climate configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, MetUM. The concept of a model "family" comprises a range of specific model configurations incorporating different levels of complexity but with a common physical framework. The HadGEM2 family of configurations includes atmosphere and ocean components, with and without a vertical extension to include a well-resolved stratosphere, and an Earth-System (ES) component which includes dynamic vegetation, ocean biology and atmospheric chemistry. The HadGEM2 physical model includes improvements designed to address specific systematic errors encountered in the previous climate configuration, HadGEM1, namely Northern Hemisphere continental temperature biases and tropical sea surface temperature biases and poor variability. Targeting these biases was crucial in order that the ES configuration could represent important biogeochemical climate feedbacks. Detailed descriptions and evaluations of particular HadGEM2 family memCorrespondence to: G. M. Martin (gill.martin@metoffice.gov.uk) bers are included in a number of other publications, and the discussion here is limited to a summary of the overall performance using a set of model metrics which compare the way in which the various configurations simulate present-day climate and its variability.

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies

Enhanced release of CO 2 to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO 2 levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate-carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single-pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated 'RothC' multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data.The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.

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