The (Re-)Emergence and Spread of Viral Zoonotic Disease: A Perfect Storm of Human Ingenuity and Stupidity

Marie, Veronna; Gordon, Michelle

doi:10.3390/v15081638

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 123 publications

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“…Indeed, the richness and wide availability of environmental data is in stark contrast to most infectious disease surveillance data, which are often inaccessible, irregularly available, and critically not standardized across contexts or diseases. With emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases on the rise, 95 a focus on generating high-quality, harmonized infectious disease surveillance data could have profound effects on our ability to model and forecast disease spread around the globe.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating time-varying cholera transmission and oral cholera vaccine effectiveness in Haiti and Cameroon, 2021-2023

Hulland,

Charpignon,

El Hayek

et al. 2024

Preprint

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In 2023, cholera affected approximately 1 million people and caused more than 5000 deaths globally, predominantly in low-income and conflict settings. In recent years, the number of new cholera outbreaks has grown rapidly. Further, ongoing cholera outbreaks have been exacerbated by conflict, climate change, and poor infrastructure, resulting in prolonged crises. As a result, the demand for treatment and intervention is quickly outpacing existing resource availability. Prior to improved water and sanitation systems, cholera, a disease primarily transmitted via contaminated water sources, also routinely ravaged high-income countries. Crumbling infrastructure and climate change are now putting new locations at risk — even in high-income countries. Thus, understanding the transmission and prevention of cholera is critical.Combating cholera requires multiple interventions, the most common being behavioral education and water treatment. Two-dose oral cholera vaccination (OCV) is often used as a complement to these interventions. Due to limited supply, countries have recently switched to single-dose vaccines (OCV1). One challenge lies in understanding where to allocate OCV1 in a timely manner, especially in settings lacking well-resourced public health surveillance systems. As cholera occurs primarily in low-income and conflict settings, timely, accurate, and openly accessible outbreak data are typically inaccessible for disease modeling and subsequent decision-making.In this study, we demonstrated the value of open-access data to rapidly estimate disease transmission and vaccine effectiveness. Specifically, we obtained non-machine readable (NMR) epidemic curves for recent cholera outbreaks in two countries, Haiti and Cameroon, from figures published in situation and disease outbreak news reports. We used computational digitization techniques to derive weekly counts of cholera cases. Given these data, we leveraged EpiEstim—an open-source modeling platform—to derive rapid estimates of time-varying disease transmission via the effective reproduction number (Rt). We used VaxEstim, a recent extension of this platform allowing the estimation of vaccine effectiveness via the relation between the basic reproductive number (R0),Rt, and vaccine coverage, to compare OCV1 effectiveness in the two considered countries. Here, with Haiti and Cameroon as case studies, we demonstrated the first implementation of VaxEstim in low-resource settings.In the initial phase of the outbreak, weekly rolling average estimates ofRtwere elevated in both countries: 2.60 in Haiti [95% credible interval: 2.42-2.79] and 1.90 in Cameroon [1.14-2.95]. Similarly, in both countries, this period of high transmission preceded a longer period during whichRtoscillated around the critical threshold of 1. VaxEstim results suggest that Haiti had higher OCV1 effectiveness than Cameroon (75.32% effective [54.00-86.39%] vs. 56.21% [18.87-84.94%]).This work underscores the value of combining NMR sources of outbreak case data with computational techniques and the utility of VaxEstim for rapid, inexpensive estimation of vaccine effectiveness in data-poor outbreak settings.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating time-varying cholera transmission and oral cholera vaccine effectiveness in Haiti and Cameroon, 2021-2023

Hulland,

Charpignon,

El Hayek

et al. 2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The era of infectious diseases is entering a new phase, with unprecedented challenges and consequences for global health and stability 52 . In this era, the interconnectedness of our world, rapid travel, and urbanization have created a perfect storm for the amplification and spread of infectious diseases 53 . This new era requires a coordinated global effort to improve surveillance, enhance healthcare infrastructure, and develop effective strategies for prevention and control.…”

Section: A New Era Of Infectious Diseasementioning

confidence: 99%

The importance, benefits, and future of nanobiosensors for infectious diseases

Dhahi,

Dafhalla,

Saad

et al. 2024

Biotech and App Biochem

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Infectious diseases, caused by pathogenic microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, parasites, or fungi, are crucial for efficient disease management, reducing morbidity and mortality rates and controlling disease spread. Traditional laboratory‐based diagnostic methods face challenges such as high costs, time consumption, and a lack of trained personnel in resource‐poor settings. Diagnostic biosensors have gained momentum as a potential solution, offering advantages such as low cost, high sensitivity, ease of use, and portability. Nanobiosensors are a promising tool for detecting and diagnosing infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease, human immunodeficiency virus, and hepatitis. These sensors use nanostructured carbon nanotubes, graphene, and nanoparticles to detect specific biomarkers or pathogens. They operate through mechanisms like the lateral flow test platform, where a sample containing the biomarker or pathogen is applied to a test strip. If present, the sample binds to specific recognition probes on the strip, indicating a positive result. This binding event is visualized through a colored line. This review discusses the importance, benefits, and potential of nanobiosensors in detecting infectious diseases.

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“…Furthermore, many of the root causes of climate change also increase the risk of pandemics. Deforestation and the resulting habitat loss forces animals to migrate and potentially contact other animals or people, sharing germs (Harvard 2023) and increasing risks of future pandemics as people and animals are forced to coexist in increasing proximity (Marie & Gordon 2023).…”

Section: Social Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Making the EU fit for the permacrisis. A foresight analysis on social, economic and governance resilience.

Lausberg,

Maurice,

Rayner

2024

Preprint

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The global pandemic of COVID-19 was a significant aspect of the permacrisis in which the European Union (EU) finds itself. Since 2008 and the global financial crisis, the EU has faced a series of crises that have often been interconnected, complex and unexpected. The results have repeatedly highlighted the structural nature of the problems that must be tackled. A post-pandemic EU has, therefore, to be envisioned in the perspective of current transformations and challenges, as well as through the lessons of previous and following crises, including, most importantly, the war of aggression of Russia against Ukraine.This foresight analysis investigates the EU’s resilience capacities in three areas most impacted by the COVID-19 crisis: health and social, economy and governance. It reviews the EU’s response to the pandemic, examines current and future challenges for the EU to address, and identifies ways to prepare the European institutions, policies and procedures to make the EU more resilient henceforth. It argues that the EU should develop a more holistic and foresight-oriented policymaking to better identify the linkages between the crises and transformations it faces, considering the necessary trade-offs between policies.

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The (Re-)Emergence and Spread of Viral Zoonotic Disease: A Perfect Storm of Human Ingenuity and Stupidity

Cited by 6 publications

References 123 publications

Estimating time-varying cholera transmission and oral cholera vaccine effectiveness in Haiti and Cameroon, 2021-2023

Estimating time-varying cholera transmission and oral cholera vaccine effectiveness in Haiti and Cameroon, 2021-2023

The importance, benefits, and future of nanobiosensors for infectious diseases

Making the EU fit for the permacrisis. A foresight analysis on social, economic and governance resilience.

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