Making the EU fit for the permacrisis. A foresight analysis on social, economic and governance resilience.

Abstract

The global pandemic of COVID-19 was a significant aspect of the permacrisis in which the European Union (EU) finds itself. Since 2008 and the global financial crisis, the EU has faced a series of crises that have often been interconnected, complex and unexpected. The results have repeatedly highlighted the structural nature of the problems that must be tackled. A post-pandemic EU has, therefore, to be envisioned in the perspective of current transformations and challenges, as well as through the lessons of previous and following crises, including, most importantly, the war of aggression of Russia against Ukraine.This foresight analysis investigates the EU’s resilience capacities in three areas most impacted by the COVID-19 crisis: health and social, economy and governance. It reviews the EU’s response to the pandemic, examines current and future challenges for the EU to address, and identifies ways to prepare the European institutions, policies and procedures to make the EU more resilient henceforth. It argues that the EU should develop a more holistic and foresight-oriented policymaking to better identify the linkages between the crises and transformations it faces, considering the necessary trade-offs between policies.