The Quick Assessment Model of Casualties for Asia based on the Vulnerability of Earthquake

Abstract

Abstract. In order to make a scientific emergency strategic decision after an earthquake, casualties need to be estimated rapidly. Asia is the most earthquake-prone continent in the world. In this paper, by spatial statistic and regressive analysis of historical Asian earthquake data from 1990 to 2012, vulnerability curves portraying the empirical relationship between the magnitude of an earthquake event and the casualty rate caused by it were created for countries of six-groups and the Quick 10 Assessment Model of Earthquake Casualties for Asia (QAMECA) was developed. The casualty rate was defined as the ratio of the sum of injuries and deaths in an earthquake to the number of people living in the earthquake-affected region. Thirtyone earthquake events from 2013 to 2016 were used to validate this model, and the validation results were good with actual casualties of twenty-one were within the range estimated by the model and the biases of eight out of ten were less than one hundred percent. The two input parameters of QAMECA were magnitude and location of epicenter of an earthquake and 15 earthquake casualties can be estimated immediately after earthquake has occurred. As a consequence, QAMECA can be used to estimate earthquake casualties for Asian countries and aid decision making in international emergency relief in the future.

Assessment of earthquake casualties and comparison of accuracy of five injury triage methods: evidence from a retrospective study

“…Earthquakes are a natural hazard that results in a large number of deaths. 22 The conditions triggered by an earthquake that affect the likelihood and degree of damage Open access are referred to as 'earthquake population With the global population's continued growth and large-scale urbanisation, earthquakes will pose a greater threat to human safety. 8 While our level of technology does not allow us to accurately predict an earthquake, earthquakes can be researched from two perspectives to minimise, as much as possible, the number of people killed or injured.…”

Research on lethal levels of buildings based on historical seismic data

“…For example, the death evaluation model is based on impact factors such as the magnitude and population density (Christoskov and Samardjieva, 1984;Samardjieva, 2002;Badal and Samardjieva, 2003;Badal et al, 2005). Nonetheless, although the influencing factors in these models may be the same, the final fitted models are not completely identical due to regional differences and variations in the selected historical earthquake cases (Oike, 1991;Wang et al, 2011;Ceferino et al, 2018a;Zhang et al, 2018). As another example, the empirical function method uses only the seismic parameters of historical earthquakes (Jaiswal et al, 2015); since this method considers only the impacts of the earthquake magnitude, intensity and other factors on the number of deaths, the need for basic data is small, and thus, this approach can be used to rapidly assess the number of casualties after an earthquake.…”