The PT in Power, 2003–2016

Amaral, Oswaldo E. do; Meneguello, Rachel

doi:10.2307/j.ctt1x76g7g.6

Cited by 12 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Bohn, 2007). Moreover, the base of the country's only party with deep social roots, the PT, shifted dramatically over time: from Catholic, labor, and leftist activists (Amaral and Meneguello, 2017;Hunter, 2010); to well-educated, urban, southern men (Hunter, 2010: 114-115); to lower-status voters benefitting from social assistance (Hunter and Power, 2007). In sum, there is little evidence that race, gender, and religion drove ideology or vote choice in Brazil before 2018.…”

Section: Demographics and Vote Choice In Brazilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic polarization and the rise of the far right: Brazil’s 2018 presidential election

Layton

Smith

Moseley

et al. 2021

Research & Politics

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Does the recent electoral success of far-right populists represent a mere rejection of the political and economic status quo, or has it revealed deeper cultural divides? Historically, demographic cleavages have been poor predictors of vote choice and partisanship in Latin America. However, during Brazil’s 2018 presidential election campaign, right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro fomented conflict across lines of gender, race, and religion. We argue that his candidacy activated latent, previously unexploited grievances in the electorate. Using survey data from an original five-wave online panel conducted between July 2018 and January 2019, we examine the effect of demographic cleavages on presidential vote choice. In stark contrast to prior elections, we find clear evidence of demographic divides in 2018, partially mediated by issue positions. Bolsonaro’s campaign and subsequent election thus appear to have created new identity-based alignments in Brazil’s electorate. Our findings shed further light on the global resurgence of the far right, suggesting that far-right candidates can attract new bases of support through demographic polarization, exploiting differences in values and issue preferences by gender, race, ethnicity, and religion.

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