2020
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239251
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The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19

Abstract: This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain p… Show more

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Cited by 142 publications
(101 citation statements)
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“…For example, one can study a nationwide production network, i.e., how individual firms transfer money among one another as suppliers and customers for transactions of goods and services (see [3] and the references therein). In contrast to the macroscopic studies mentioned above, microscopic studies can uncover the heterogeneous structure of the network and its role in economic activities, how the activities are subject to shocks due to natural disasters [4] and pandemics [5], and so forth. However, microscopic data are not exhaustive; although they may cover most active firms, not all the suppliers and customers are recorded.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For example, one can study a nationwide production network, i.e., how individual firms transfer money among one another as suppliers and customers for transactions of goods and services (see [3] and the references therein). In contrast to the macroscopic studies mentioned above, microscopic studies can uncover the heterogeneous structure of the network and its role in economic activities, how the activities are subject to shocks due to natural disasters [4] and pandemics [5], and so forth. However, microscopic data are not exhaustive; although they may cover most active firms, not all the suppliers and customers are recorded.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…2 The strong heterogeneity of the industry-level primary effects of the pandemic raises the question of the role of individual industries in the aggregate effect at the macroeconomic level. Using data from input-output tables or more granular data for the Japan, UK, France, and other European economies, Pichler et al (2020), Inoue and Todo (2020), and Barrot et al (2020) show that industries that play an important role in the structure of GDP may not experience the direct effects of the pandemic and social restrictions. At the same time, such industries may be under pressure from industries affected by the primary shock of the pandemic on the supply or demand side.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…SARS-CoV-2 spreads through two major transmission methods: direct infection via respiratory droplets and indirect contact via contaminated surfaces, especially for raw processed foods. Therefore, lockdown of epidemic areas ( Inoue and Todo, 2020 ; Lian et al, 2020 ) and wearing masks ( Feng et al, 2020 ) are necessary for the control of SARS-CoV-2 spread, which have been confirmed to be effective in China.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%