Purpose: In clinical cancer trials for evaluating neoadjuvant chemotherapy, tumor downstaging is frequently used as a surrogate end point for overall survival. We evaluated the surrogacy of tumor downstaging using data from a follow-up observational study in bladder cancer. Experimental Design: A total of 586 patients (from 32 Japanese hospitals) who underwent radical cystectomy for invasive bladder cancer (clinical T2 to T4) between 1990 and 2000 were analyzed. We considered changes over time in clinical stage at diagnosis and pathologic stage at cystectomy as a surrogate end point, and survival time after cystectomy as a true end point. First, we developed a new criterion for tumor downstaging. Second, we statistically evaluated surrogacy for the criterion using Prentice's criteria. Results:To develop the criterion of end points based on tumor downstaging, we selected the best classification among all possible classifications in an attempt to separate prognosis for patients. The hazard ratios after adjustment for prognostic factors in the intermediate effect patients and the poor effect patients were 1.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.0-3.7) and 5.0 (95% confidence interval, 2.6-9.8), respectively, compared with that in the good effect patients. The conditions for correlation and conditional independency of Prentice's criteria were satisfied approximately. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy has a statistically significant tumor downstaging effect, whereas there was no difference on survival between treatment groups. Conclusions: The tumor downstaging effect could be an appropriate intermediate end point for screening novel neoadjuvant chemotherapy for invasive bladder cancer. The dataset from follow-up studies were useful for evaluating the surrogacy of end points.Appropriate surrogate end points are critical for developing new therapies through evaluation of biological activity. The surrogate end point is a test, measurement, score, or some other similar variable that is used in place of a clinical event in the design of a trial, or in summarizing results from it. Used because the variable is believed to be correlated with the clinical event of interest and because of its perceived utility in yielding detectable treatment differences (1). In clinical cancer trials, overall survival is considered to be the most reliable and definitive true end point. However, surrogate end points such as tumor burden outcomes including objective tumor effect, disease-free survival, and progression-free survival, or biomarkers including prostate-specific antigen have been widely used because trials with the true clinical outcome are often longer and larger. In a recent analysis for oncologic drugs in the U.S., 68% (39 of 57) of the regular approvals and all of the 14 accelerated approvals were based on end points other than overall survival in the last 13 years (2). To use a valid and reliable surrogate end point in cancer clinical trials, we should evaluate the surrogacy of end points on a case-by-case basis because the adequacy a...