The Problem of Economic Losses Estimating From Military Aggression for Ukraine

Abstract

Russia's war against Ukraine has caused a humanitarian, social, and economic catastrophe for Ukraine, as well as a major risk factor and uncertainty in the economic, humanitarian, social, and security spheres in Europe. These phenomena in a globalized world can cause a crisis around the world, going far beyond the continent. It is possible to estimate the amount of losses for industry, infrastructure, agriculture of Ukraine only after the cessation of the active phase of hostilities. However, data on losses are needed at the present stage to plan recovery, justify financial assistance to international agencies and donor countries, and to use the total amount of losses in lawsuits against the aggressor country. This was the reason for the urgency of such a study. The article systematizes the challenges of economic and social development in the regional and global aspects, high probability of rising food and energy prices was pointed out. The main negative consequences are expressed in the humanitarian and social spheres, rising prices and food and raw materials, as well as security risks. The authors summarize the data on losses for the Ukrainian economy from the military conflict. The analysis was conducted within certain regions of Ukraine, industries. It is noted that the most affected regions of Ukraine were the regions with the greatest production potential. The dynamics of changes in the production load of enterprises and institutions of Ukraine from the beginning of March to the end of May is analyzed. Emphasis is placed on the share of production capacity of certain industries located in the liberated and temporarily occupied regions of the country. The threatening condition of metallurgy and mechanical engineering is noted. Thus, planning the recovery of Ukraine's economy in the postwar period is impossible without careful and correct consideration of all damage to industrial, infrastructural and social facilities. Obtaining Ukraine's candidate status for accession to the European Union can facilitate the procedure for financing post-war reconstruction and the path to future membership will be the key to the European vector of development of Ukraine.