The prediction of success in the VA training program in clinical psychology.

Kelly, Edward Leonard; Fiske, Donald W.

doi:10.1037/h0062436

Cited by 81 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 2 publications

(2 reference statements)

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“…It was found that the adjustment of forecasts resulted in an improvement in forecasting accuracy, a finding which was contrary to previous research in the area (Harris, 1963;Kelly and Fiske, 1950;Carbone et al, 1983). This paper provides additional insights into the process to give a more complete picture of revision activity, focusing on how effectively managers select forecasts for revision.…”

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 75%

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection

Mathews

Diamantopoulous

1990

Journal of Forecasting

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When managers make revisions to sales forecasts initially generated by a rational quantitative model it is important that the particular forecasts selected for adjustment are those which would benefit most from the adjustment process (i.e. realize high errors). This study reports an empirical investigation on this issue, spanning six quarterly forecasting periods and incorporating forecasting data on over 850 products. The results show that the errors of the forecasts chosen for revision are, in general, higher than those which were not chosen. In addition, it is shown that managesrs tend to revise forecasts which are initialIy low, hence possibily introducing some degree of bias into the overall forecasts.

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Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 75%

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection

Mathews

Diamantopoulous

1990

Journal of Forecasting

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“…Across all of these studies, only the EPPS "Order" scale was consistently significantly predictive of any trainee performance measure: strong negative correlations were usually found with trainee ability to communicate empathically. Kelly and Fiske (1950), in a large study aimed at "the prediction of success in the VA training program in clinical psychology," concluded that:…”

Section: Trainee Personal Characteristics and Selectionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Research on Training Counselors and Clinicians

Ford

1979

Review of Educational Research

111

116

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“…This guideline was based on evidence from psychology (for example, Kelly and Fiske [1950]) that expert revisions lessened forecasting accuracy. Some apparently contradictory evidence arose from studies in economic forecasting [Juster 1972;McNees 1975].…”

Section: Making the Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960–1984

Armstrong

1986

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Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts.

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The prediction of success in the VA training program in clinical psychology.

Cited by 81 publications

References 2 publications

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection

Research on Training Counselors and Clinicians

The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960–1984

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