The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030

Hertel, Thomas W.; Burke, Marshall; Lobell, David B.

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.001

Cited by 400 publications

(298 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(28 reference statements)

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“…16 Figure 2 shows how median land values per hectare (adjusted for regional cost-of-living differences) vary over the Indian subcontinent. The highest valued cropland lies across the Indo-Gangetic plain, the most intensively farmed zone in the country, whereas land values are lowest in the far-western desert region.…”

Section: Land Values and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Results from two separate multi-sector computable general equilibrium models of the world economy, GTAP (Hertel, 2010) and ENVISAGE (van der Mensbrugghe, 2009), suggest that cereal prices will rise by around 10 percent by 2040 due to climate change. We should emphasize, however, that such forecasting is far from an exact science; indeed, since no standard errors are attached, the degree of prediction uncertainty cannot even be quantified.…”

Section: Cereal Prices and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

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Distributional implications of climate change in India

Jacoby¹,

Rabassa²,

Skoufias³

2011

Policy Research Working Papers

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Section: Land Values and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cereal Prices and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Distributional implications of climate change in India

Jacoby¹,

Rabassa²,

Skoufias³

2011

Policy Research Working Papers

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“…Tackling against food insecurity and hunger is more challenging in the face of rising global population, climate change, and high and volatile food prices (Calzadilla et al 2014;Hertel et al 2010;Ringler et al 2013). Increasing global population, which is projected to reach more than 9 billion in 2050, entails that more food needs to be produced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The third group of studiesincluding this study-investigates the impact of not only climate but also economic variables on crop production. These studies, including Weersink et al (2010), Huang and Khanna (2010), Hertel et al (2010), and Miao et al (2016), investigate the effect of climate variables on food supply and account for potential acreage and yield adjustments by controlling for responsiveness of farmers to expected input and output prices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply

Haile¹,

Wossen

Tesfaye

et al. 2017

EconDisCliCha

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We analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period . Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1-3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops-especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world's key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes-in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation-during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security.

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“…It is one of the regions that may be exposed to a high malaria transmission probability rate under projected future climatic and socio-economic conditions (Béguin et al 2011). Additionally, with Africa exhibiting the most susceptibility to climate-induced poverty among a global sample of developing areas (Ahmed et al 2009;Hertel et al 2010) and with a projected increased water and food scarcity due to adverse weather conditions in Africa, conflicts over land and water are likely to increase (Brown et al 2007;Hendrix and Glaser 2007).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%