We analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period . Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1-3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops-especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world's key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes-in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation-during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security.
This study was conducted in south Wollo to investigate the spatio-temporal variability of nine extreme rainfall indices and their trends. The daily rainfall was obtained from six meteorological stations in the period (1984-2014). Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test were used to determine the magnitude and trends of changes, respectively. The results showed complex patterns of rainfall. Rainfall significantly (P<0.05) increased in summer in some of the stations (Dessie, Haik and Mekaneselam) and showed declining tendency in spring at all studied stations. The mean annual consecutive dry day significantly decreased at Dessie, Haik and Wereilu whereas consecutive wet days significantly increased at Ambamariam, Dessie and Mekaneselam. Trends in mean annual number of wet days, total wet day rainfall and simple daily rainfall intensity index did not show significant changes. The study revealed that rainfall pattern of the studied stations was changed into mono modal (summer) and the inter-annual and seasonal rainfall variability was high. These results highlight the need for planning effective adaptation strategies.
Wheat yields in Ethiopia need to increase considerably to reduce import dependency and keep up with the expected increase in population and dietary changes. Despite the yield progress observed in recent years, wheat yield gaps remain large. Here, we decompose wheat yield gaps in Ethiopia into efficiency, resource, and technology yield gaps and relate those yield gaps to broader farm(ing) systems aspects. To do so, stochastic frontier analysis was applied to a nationally representative panel dataset covering the Meher seasons of 2009 and 2013 and crop modelling was used to simulate the water-limited yield (Yw) in the same years. Farming systems analysis was conducted to describe crop area shares and the availability of land, labour, and capital in contrasting administrative zones. Wheat yield in farmers’ fields averaged 1.9 t ha− 1 corresponding to ca. 20% of Yw. Most of the yield gap was attributed to the technology yield gap (> 50% of Yw) but narrowing efficiency (ca. 10% of Yw) and resource yield gaps (ca. 15% of Yw) with current technologies can nearly double actual yields and contribute to achieve wheat self-sufficiency in Ethiopia. There were small differences in the relative contribution of the intermediate yield gaps to the overall yield gap across agro-ecological zones, administrative zones, and farming systems. At farm level, oxen ownership was positively associated with the wheat cultivated area in zones with relatively large cultivated areas per household (West Arsi and North Showa) while no relationship was found between oxen ownership and the amount of inputs used per hectare of wheat in the zones studied. This is the first thorough yield gap decomposition for wheat in Ethiopia and our results suggest government policies aiming to increase wheat production should prioritise accessibility and affordability of inputs and dissemination of technologies that allow for precise use of these inputs.
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