Distributional implications of climate change in India

Climate Change, Agricultural Production, and Poverty in India

“…However, in contrast to aggregative (structural) general equilibrium models, the partial equilibrium models are capable of producing quantitative analysis using specific factors of importance at the local or regional levels (Palatnik and Roson 2009). The contemporary empirical literature on estimating climate change-induced impacts on farming systems is rooted in three predominant approaches: crop simulation models, agronomic statistical models, and hedonic price models (Jacoby et al 2011;Hertel and Rosch 2010;Zhai et al 2009;Schlenker and Roberts 2009). 1 An alternative to the crop simulation approach is to estimate statistical relationships between crop yields, on the one hand, and climatic parameters, especially temperature and precipitation, on the other, using relatively less calibrated data.…”

“…This is readily implemented for large geographic areas (Hertel and Rosch 2010;Lobell and Burke 2010). Finally, the so-called hedonic approach for analyzing the impact of climate change on farming systems (Jacoby et al 2011) is known as the Ricardian Model that predicts choice of the highest yield on any given set of land. The approach focuses on the impact of climate on land values, not yields.…”

Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems

“…However, the empirical evidence suggests that dry and hot weather is more harmful to crops rather than just the dry conditions (O'Brien et al, 1996;Auffhammer et al, 2011;Iizumi and Ramankutty, 2015). Several studies exploring the nexus between climate change and agriculture have also shown that climate impacts are largely driven by rise in temperature (e.g., Cline, 1996;Sanghi et al, 1998;Mendelsohn et al, 2001;Kumar and Parikh, 2001;Schlenker and Roberts, 2006;Guiteras, 2007;Sanghi and Mendelsohn, 2008;Mendelsohn and Dinar, 2009;Jacoby et al, 2011). Thus, a drought can be conceptualized as an outcome of the occurrence of two joint events, abnormally low moisture due to poor rainfall and abnormally high temperature.…”

“…In recent years, literature on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security has grown considerably (see, Cline, 1996;Sanghi et al, 1998;Mendelsohn et al, 2001;Kumar and Parikh, 2001;Schlenker and Roberts, 2006;Stern, 2006;Guiteras, 2007;Sanghi and Mendelsohn, 2008;Mendelsohn and Dinar, 2009;Nelson et al, 2009;Jacoby et al, 2011;Kurukulasuriya et al, 2011;De Salvo et al, 2013;Birthal et al, 2014). However, to the best of our knowledge a rigorous analysis of the impacts of extreme climatic events, including droughts, is still lacking.…”

India’s Turn in Climate Policy: Assessing the Interplay of Domestic and International Policy Change

“…The worst hit by climate change will be the poor, first of all because of the fall in agricultural productivity, only partly offset by higher cereal prices, which, however, will affect the urban poor. A scenario developed by some World Bank experts foresees an increase of the national poverty rate by 3 to 4 percent by 2040 compared to the counterfactual of zero warming (Jacoby et al 2011).…”