The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

Abstract

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

Aquatic invasive alien rodents in Western France: Where do we stand today after decades of control?

“…In Europe, two semi-aquatic rodents, the coypu ( Myocastor coypus ) and muskrat ( Ondatra zibethicus ), have been included in the list of Invasive Alien Species of Union Concern (EU Regulation No 1143/2014). These two aquatic invasive alien rodents (AIAR) are widespread in Europe [ 19 – 21 ] and have been found across many wetlands in France [ 22 , 23 ]. On top of this, they are important carriers of diseases contagious to humans, including leptospirosis [ 24 ], toxoplasmosis [ 25 ] and alveolar echinococcosis [ 26 ], and livestock and pets, including leptospirosis, giant liver fluke and salmonellosis [ 24 , 27 ].…”

Economic costs of invasive alien species in the Mediterranean basin

“…For example, our database only contains observed costs for cnidarians in Israel, despite the presence of a number of invasive species of jellyfish all over the Mediterranean (Brotz and Pauly 2012). Furthermore, previous findings (Capinha et al 2014;Essl et al 2015;Schertler et al 2020;Zhang et al 2020) have shown that large areas of the Mediterranean basin are predicted to be currently climatically suitable for some of the IAS presenting observed damage costs in other regions. Assuming the presence of suitable dispersal vectors, costs are likely already occurring in these regions (but have not been reported or captured in our database) or likely to occur in additional countries as IAS distributions expand.…”

An update on the distribution of the coypu, Myocastor coypus, in Asia and Africa through published literature, citizen-science and online platforms

“…Therefore, we combined worldwide coypu occurrences (from its native and introduced range) with six bioclimatic predictors to construct ensemble models and predict the suitability of our study region, using the biomod2 framework (see Figures S1-S3 in Supplementary Material 2). For Northern and Southern America, we downloaded GBIF and iNaturalist occurrences, and for Europe we combined the dataset of Schertler et al (2020) with recently published occurrences from both platforms. Only point occurrences with a coordinate uncertainty of less than 10 km were considered for modelling (if this information was missing, we assumed the uncertainty to be lower than our threshold).…”

“…Despite its widespread distribution and invasive potential, studies mostly focused on Europe and Northern America (e.g. Hilts et al 2019;Schertler et al 2020). Already two decades ago, Carter and Leonard (2002) pointed out that a comprehensive review on the coypu was not available for Africa and that information for Asian countries was often anecdotal and/or outdated, leading to an unknown status for many countries of introduction in those continents.…”