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We currently lack the capacity to rapidly and reliably predict the efficacy of biological control agents due to inadequate consistency in derivations of functional and numerical responses and potential effects of context-dependencies. Here, we propose and apply a novel metric, Relative Control Potential (RCP), which combines the functional response (FR, per capita effect) with proxies for the numerical response (NR, agent population response) to compare agent efficacies, where RCP = FR × abundance (or other proxies e.g. fecundity). The RCP metric is a comparative ratio between potential biocontrol agents, where values > 1 indicate higher relative control efficacy. Further, RCP can compare the efficacy of agents under environmental contexts, such as temperature change. We thus derived the RCP for two predatory cyclopoid copepods, Macrocyclops albidus (Cyclopoida: Cyclopidae) and Megacyclops viridis (Cyclopoida: Cyclopidae), towards larvae of the mosquito Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) under temperatures representative of current and future climate. Both copepods exhibited potentially population destabilising Type II FRs, with increasing temperatures inducing greater magnitude FRs through increased attack rates and decreased handling times. Attack rates by M. albidus were higher than M. viridis, yet handling times and maximum feeding rates were similar between the species across all temperatures. The inclusion of abundance data drives an elevated RCP of M. albidus and the integration of fecundity drives greater RCP of M. albidus at peak temperatures. Q10 values are indicative of increased feeding activity by both copepods with temperature increases, however relative feeding level increases of M. viridis slowed towards the peak temperature. We present RCP calculations and biplots that represent the comparative efficacies of the two biological control agents across temperatures. The Relative Control Potential (RCP) metric thus provides a new tool for practitioners to better assess the potential efficacy of biocontrol agents before their integration into management approaches for pests, vectors and invasive species.

The Functional Response (FR) has been identified as a powerful predictive tool to forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species. In particular, the parameters of attack rate a and handling time h may be predictive of the ecological impacts of invaders when utilised in comparison with trophically analogous natives. However, researchers in many cases face somewhat contradictory impact predictions based on the use of one parameter or the other. Here, we thus propose a new metric, the Functional Response Ratio (FRR), which is simply a divided by h: that is, FRR = a/ h. Given that high values of a and low values of h should associate with high impact, and vice versa, the FRR metric balances the information from both parameters. This also resolves contradictions when one parameter gives opposite predictions to the other. Using multiple examples obtained from the literature, we find that the FRR indeed resolves such contradictions and that values of FRR of invaders are consistently higher than those of natives, irrespective of experimental or environmental context. Accordingly, the use of FRR provides a novel and reliable metric for scientists, stakeholders and practitioners to predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species across taxa and trophic groups. Keywords Consumer-resource Á Impact prediction Á Handling time Á Attack rate Á Risk assessment Á Invasive alien species Á Functional Response Ratio

Biological invasions continue to threaten the stability of ecosystems and societies that are dependent on their services. Whilst the ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) have been widely reported in recent decades, there remains a paucity of information concerning their economic impacts. Europe has strong trade and transport links with the rest of the world, facilitating hundreds of IAS incursions, and largely centralised decision-making frameworks. The present study is the first comprehensive and detailed effort that quantifies the costs of IAS collectively across European countries and examines temporal trends in these data. In addition, the distributions of costs across countries, socioeconomic sectors and taxonomic groups are examined, as are socio-economic correlates of management and damage costs. Total costs of IAS in Europe summed to US$140.20 billion (or €116.61 billion) between 1960 and 2020, with the majority (60%) being damage-related and impacting multiple sectors. Costs were also geographically widespread but dominated by impacts in large western and central European countries, i.e. the UK, Spain, France, and Germany. Human population size, land area, GDP, and tourism were significant predictors of invasion costs, with management costs additionally predicted by numbers of introduced species, research effort and trade. Temporally, invasion costs have increased exponentially through time, with up to US$23.58 billion (€19.64 billion) in 2013, and US$139.56 billion (€116.24 billion) in impacts extrapolated in 2020. Importantly, although these costs are substantial, there remain knowledge gaps on several geographic and taxonomic scales, indicating that these costs are severely underestimated. We, thus, urge increased and improved cost reporting for economic impacts of IAS and coordinated international action to prevent further spread and mitigate impacts of IAS populations.

Parched plants: survival and viability of invasive aquatic macrophytes following exposure to various desiccation regimes,

Invasive species continue to severely impact biodiversity, yet predicting the success or failure of introduced species has remained elusive. In particular, the relationship between community invasibility and native species diversity remains obscure. Here, we apply two traditional ecological concepts that inform prey population stability and hence invasibility. We first show that the native predatory crustacean Gammarus duebeni celticus exhibited similar type II (destabilizing) functional responses (FRs) towards native mayfly prey and invasive amphipod prey, when these prey species were presented separately. However, when the two prey species were presented simultaneously, the predator did not exhibit prey switching, instead consuming disproportionately more native prey than expected from the relative abundance of native and invasive species. These consumptive propensities foster reductions of native prey, while simultaneously limiting biotic resistance against the invasive species by the native predator. Since our theoretical considerations and laboratory results match known field invasion patterns, we advocate the increased consideration of FR and prey switching studies to understand and predict the success of invasive species.

Invasive alien species continue to arrive in new locations with no abatement in rate, and thus greater predictive powers surrounding their ecological impacts are required. In particular, we need improved means of quantifying the ecological impacts of new invasive species under different contexts. Here, we develop a suite of metrics based upon the novel Relative Impact Potential (RIP) metric, combining the functional response (consumer per capita effect), with proxies for the numerical response (consumer population response), providing quantification of invasive species ecological impact. These metrics are comparative in relation to the eco-evolutionary baseline of trophically analogous natives, as well as other invasive species and across multiple populations. Crucially, the metrics also reveal how impacts of invasive species change under abiotic and biotic contexts. While studies focused solely on functional responses have been successful in predictive invasion ecology, RIP retains these advantages while adding vital other predictive elements, principally consumer abundance. RIP can also be combined with propagule pressure to quantify overall invasion risk. By highlighting functional response and numerical response proxies, we outline a user-friendly method for assessing the impacts of invaders of all trophic levels and taxonomic groups. We apply the metric to impact assessment in the face of climate change by taking account of both changing predator consumption rates and prey reproduction rates. We proceed to outline the application of RIP to assess biotic resistance against incoming invasive species, the effect of evolution on invasive species impacts, application to interspecific competition, changing spatio-temporal patterns of invasion, and how RIP can inform biological control. We propose that RIP provides scientists and practitioners with a user-friendly, customisable and, crucially, powerful technique to inform invasive species policy and management.

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