The Pacific sea surface temperature

Douglass, D. H.

doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2011.10.042

Cited by 12 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…An exhaustive study on index SST3.4 was carried out by Douglass [10] It is noted that these 3 indices do not completely describe the phase-locked segment. Missing is information on amplitudes and when the phase-locked state will begin or and.…”

Section: Phase-locked Climate Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An El Niño That “Failed to Appear”, an El Niño That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Niño

Douglass¹

2018

ACS

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This paper discusses why model predictions of El Niño events fail. We begin by commenting on a recent retrospective about the failed prediction of an El Niño during 1975 McPhaden et al. state that "for all the advances in seasonal forecasting over the past 40 years, the fundamental problem of skillfully predicting the development of ENSO events and their consequences still challenges the scientific community." In a second paper McPhaden, this time alone, discusses the case of a "monster" El Niño "that failed to materialize in 2014". Unbeknown to McPhaden, these two climate "nonevents" have already been discussed and "explained" in some details in papers that report that the climate system consists of a series of finite time segments bounded by abrupt climate shifts. These finite time segments are phase-locked to the 2 nd or 3 rd subharmonic of an annual forcing. This paper will be an updated review of these "explanations". Additionally, we note that the climate system is presently (August 2017) in a phase-locked state of period 3 years that began in 2009 to make a qualified prediction: The next El Niño will occur during boreal winter of 2018 unless this phase-locked state terminates before then.

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Section: Phase-locked Climate Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An El Niño That “Failed to Appear”, an El Niño That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Niño

Douglass¹

2018

ACS

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“…In that study, identification of phase-locked states was done by visual observation such as the four maxima of spacing three years between 1895 and 1905 followed by application of the autocorrelation method to this time segment resulting in phase-locked segment #2. What Douglass [17] failed to do was a systematic search of the entire time series with the same care where there was no obvious similar pattern. This paper corrects this failing and will report seven new phase-locked segments.…”

Section: Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Phase-Locked El Niño Episodes

Douglass¹,

Knox²,

Curtis³

et al. 2017

ACS

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Using a newly reported Pacific sea surface temperature data set, we extend a prior study that assigned El Niño episodes to distinct sequences. Within these sequences the episodes are phase-locked to subharmonics of the annual solar irradiance cycle having two-or three-year periodicity. There are 40 El Niño episodes occurring since 1872, each found within one of eighteen such sequences. Our list includes all previously reported events. Three El Niño episodes have already been observed in boreal winters of 2009, 2012 and 2015, illustrating a sequence of 3-year intervals that began in 2008. If the climate system remains in this state, the next El Niño is likely to occur in boreal winter of 2018.

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“…In a detailed study of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index SST3.4, Douglass [1] found two signals, one that was predominantly 1.0 cycle/yr, and one of low frequency (<1.0 cycle/yr) exhibiting the familiar El Niño/La Niña phenomenon. These were called N H and N L , respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ten such numbered segments were identified in the period 1870-2008 (see Table 3 of Ref. [1]). Either the beginning or end date, or both, of those segments had a near one-to-one correspondence with previously reported abrupt climate changes or climate shifts (CS).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures

Douglass

Knox

2015

Physics Letters A

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The Pacific sea surface temperature

Cited by 12 publications

References 20 publications

An El Niño That “Failed to Appear”, an El Niño That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Niño

An El Niño That “Failed to Appear”, an El Niño That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Niño

Historical Phase-Locked El Niño Episodes

The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures

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The Pacific sea surface temperature

Cited by 12 publications

References 20 publications

An El Ni&#241;o That “Failed to Appear”, an El Ni&#241;o That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Ni&#241;o

An El Ni&#241;o That “Failed to Appear”, an El Ni&#241;o That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Ni&#241;o

Historical Phase-Locked El Ni&#241;o Episodes

The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

An El Niño That “Failed to Appear”, an El Niño That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Niño

An El Niño That “Failed to Appear”, an El Niño That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Niño

Historical Phase-Locked El Niño Episodes