Historical Phase-Locked El Niño Episodes

Abstract

Using a newly reported Pacific sea surface temperature data set, we extend a prior study that assigned El Niño episodes to distinct sequences. Within these sequences the episodes are phase-locked to subharmonics of the annual solar irradiance cycle having two-or three-year periodicity. There are 40 El Niño episodes occurring since 1872, each found within one of eighteen such sequences. Our list includes all previously reported events. Three El Niño episodes have already been observed in boreal winters of 2009, 2012 and 2015, illustrating a sequence of 3-year intervals that began in 2008. If the climate system remains in this state, the next El Niño is likely to occur in boreal winter of 2018.

An El Niño That “Failed to Appear”, an El Niño That Was “Hiding” and a Prediction of the Next El Niño

“…4, that was introduced and defined by Barnston et al [3], is commonly used as a proxy to study the El Niño/La Niña phenomena. For a recent example, Douglass, Knox, Curtis, Giese and Ray [4] (hence forth DKCGR) have used this index to define, seek and then to find many El Niño episodes. They repotted 40 since 1872.…”

Observation of Phase-Locked States in the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)

“…Here we do not need to use anomalies to determine phase-locked states. We compare AMO_12 to the previously published results on SST3.4 [7], which showed phase-locked states. We have studied AMO_12 from the mid-19th century and have observed the phase-locked phenomena.…”

“…Douglass, Knox, Curtis, Giese and Ray [7] (henceforth DKCGR) studied the index SST3.4 in more detail. They defined and enumerated the historical El Niño episodes.…”

When Will the Next El Niño Occur?

“…See Philander [1]. A recent detailed study was published by Douglass, Knox, Curtis, Giese and Ray (DKCGR) [2] who studied the central Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index SST3.4, which was introduced by Barnston et al [3] and is commonly used as a proxy to study the El Niño/La Niña phenomena.…”