When Will the Next El Niño Occur?

Abstract

There is great interest in knowing when a future El Niño will occur. Most physical models forecast the future based on climate data from the recent past-about a year. The forecasted future is also a fraction of a year. This approach to predicting the future does not use the fact that the climate system may be in a phase-locked state in which sinusoidal oscillations of 2 or 3 years are observed. These states can last many cycles. Thus, if the climate system is in a phase-locked state, one may be able to make definite statements about the future independent of physical models. Douglass, Knox, Curtiss, Geise and Ray (DKCGR) have used the fact that the climate system is presently in a phase-loxked state of period 3 years to state (December 2016) that the next El Niño episode may show a maximum at about November of 2018. We present an updated analysis and state (September 2018) that if the climate system remains in a phase-locked state of period 3 years there will be an El Niño maximum at about November 2018. If that happens, there could be another El Niño maximum at about November 2021.