The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures

Douglass, D. H.; Knox, Robert

doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2014.10.057

Cited by 8 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 11 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…The methods used in this study are the same as those described in detail in D2011a and by Douglass and Knox [20], are summarized in the Appendix, and sketched here.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is found that the events are phase-locked to the solar irradiance cycle and have only one of two observed periodicities, either two or three years, which correspond to subharmonics of that cycle. Phase-locking and the method of analysis, including a description of a test of its validity (Douglass and Knox [20], Appendix A), are described in Part 2 of the Appendix.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper corrects this failing and will report seven new phase-locked segments. Douglass and Knox [20] [21] reported an eleventh phase-locked segment that began in 2008.…”

Section: Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Spurious La Niña episodes are also reported, such as the event from Aug 2011 to Mar 2012-this event along with the real La Niña event one year earlier have been described as a "double-dip" La Niña episodes. These spurious episodes arise from the annual SST3.4 signal, which was not completely removed by the climatology scheme [20] [21].…”

Section: Comparisons To Other Lists Of El Niño Episodesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The extent of such a segment in time is determined by adding or subtracting beginning-and end-date data points from a candidate segment until a cosine-like pattern appears. The segments for the case of aSST3.4 have been shown to be phaselocked to the above-mentioned annual forcing [20]. The subharmonic number n in years and the range of the phase-locked segment are defined by the autocorrelation calculation.…”

Section: Identifying Phase-locked Time Segments In Asst34mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Historical Phase-Locked El Niño Episodes

Douglass¹,

Knox²,

Curtis³

et al. 2017

ACS

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Using a newly reported Pacific sea surface temperature data set, we extend a prior study that assigned El Niño episodes to distinct sequences. Within these sequences the episodes are phase-locked to subharmonics of the annual solar irradiance cycle having two-or three-year periodicity. There are 40 El Niño episodes occurring since 1872, each found within one of eighteen such sequences. Our list includes all previously reported events. Three El Niño episodes have already been observed in boreal winters of 2009, 2012 and 2015, illustrating a sequence of 3-year intervals that began in 2008. If the climate system remains in this state, the next El Niño is likely to occur in boreal winter of 2018.

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“…The methods used in this study are the same as those described in detail in D2011a and by Douglass and Knox [20], are summarized in the Appendix, and sketched here.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This paper corrects this failing and will report seven new phase-locked segments. Douglass and Knox [20] [21] reported an eleventh phase-locked segment that began in 2008.…”

Section: Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Comparisons To Other Lists Of El Niño Episodesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Identifying Phase-locked Time Segments In Asst34mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Historical Phase-Locked El Niño Episodes

Douglass¹,

Knox²,

Curtis³

et al. 2017

ACS

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Phase‐locked tropical Pacific precipitation

Curtis

Douglass

2015

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Prior studies of the El Niño/La Niña index SST3.4 showed periodicity of exactly 2 or 3 years which were 'phase-locked' to the annual solar cycle. Ten such phase-locked intervals since 1870 were found. This article extends this work by studying precipitation data (P34) for the same region. We find phase-locked segments corresponding to those found in SST3.4. Each segment agrees both in the period of oscillation and the date interval. However, the temperature-precipitation relationship changes from segment to segment, demonstrating the non-stationarity of the system. The beginnings and ends of these time segments agree with previously reported abrupt climate shifts.

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