The Outbreak’s Modeling of Coronavirus (Covid-19) Using the Modified Seir Model in Indonesia

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a new type of virus called SARS-CoV-2, and by the beginning of 2020 had spread throughout the world, including Indonesia. A high rate of spread of COVID-19 causes the number of patients that infected increase significantly. In this study, mathematical modeling was carried out to predict the number of COVID-19 patients and the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. The model used is a modified SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) with several assumptions such as a constant and homogeneous population, patients who have recovered can not be infected, and the spread only occurs from human to human. In addition, it is assumed that there are individuals who carry out quarantine and isolation. Modeling is done using the help of MATLAB R2015a. The modeling results show that the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia will occur in the middle of May 2020, and the number of infected patients will be about 15000 people. This amount can be reduced if the quarantine and self-isolation process is carried out optimally.

Modelling lock-down strictness for COVID-19 pandemic in ASEAN countries by using hybrid ARIMA-SVR and hybrid SEIR-ANN

“…SEIR model is the most popullar model to predict the infectious desease, including to predict the outbreak of corona virus. The famous four compartments of SEIR model consist of Susceptible (S), which are healthy people but susceptible to be infection; Exposed (E), is a group of people or population suspected of being infected because they have travel to a vulnerable area, or have been in contact with an infected person, but have not been proven to be infected; Infected (I), is the population that has been infected; and Recovered (R), the population that has recovered (Rustan, 2020).…”

“…It means that one person in Malaysia interacts with other 7 people (1 Indonesian interacts with 8 others) approximately each day and they do not perform any health protocol (Rustan, 2020;Mahmud & Lim, 2020). In phase 2, Malaysia contact rate was 2.91, while Indonesia contact rate was set as 3.45 (Asteriou & Hall, 2011;Willmott et al, 2005),, and the health protocol performed well here.…”

Analisis Eksistensi Travelling Wave Pada Model Sir Penyebaran Penyakit Covid-19 Dengan Menggunakan Persamaan Difusi

“…Penyakit ini, terkonfirmasi pertama kali di Indonesia pada tanggal 2 Maret 2020 dan menjadi pandemi pada pertengahan bulan Mei 2020 yang mana angka pasien terinfeksi sudah mencapai 15.000 orang. Penyakit ini menyebar melalui kontak antar manusia, terutama melalui percikan pernafasan (droplet) yang dihasilkan ketika batuk atau bersin [1,9,11,15].…”

Forecasting of COVID-19 in Egypt and Oman using Modified SEIR and Logistic Growth Models

“…However, ad justments were made to measure the effort of the government through the effect of precautionary measures, such as changes in the education system and lockdown policies. The SEIR model and its modified forms have been widely used to estimate the growth of the epidemic in many countries such as Indonesia, Italy, and India [6][7][8]. Moreover, improvements were done using a stochastic approach that increases the prediction reliability as it enhances the fitting of the model parameters [7], which we are aiming to do in our future work.…”