The missing risks of climate change

Rising, James; Tedesco, Marco; Piontek, Franziska; Stainforth, David A.

doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05243-6

Cited by 112 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…These results imply that there can be significant benefits to the U.S. from greenhouse gas mitigation, and significant benefits to the people of the U.S. Due to FrEDI's flexible framework, it allows for the model to be continually updated as studies of impacts to new sectors, or updates to outdated sectoral studies become available. Since this work incorporates multiple disciplines, emission projections, climate modeling, impact modeling, and economic communities, it has the potential to be a useful tool in bridging the research gap between 385 these communities and helping to address some of the omitted climate change risks currently within this field (Rising et al, 2022). FrEDI was calibrated to estimate impacts for detailed 21 st century scenarios and trajectories, as described in Sarofim et al (2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States

Hartin

McDuffie

Noiva³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Evidence of the physical and economic impacts of climate change is a critical input to policy development and decision making. The potential magnitude of climate change damages, where, when, and to whom those damages may occur across the country, the types of impacts that will be most damaging, and the ability of adaptation to reduce potential risks are all important and interconnected. This study utilizes the reduced-complexity model, Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI), to rapidly assess economic and physical impacts of climate change in the contiguous United States (U.S.). Results from FrEDI show that net national damages increase overtime, with mean climate-driven damages estimated to reach $2.9 trillion USD (95 % CI: $510 billion to $12 trillion) annually by 2090. Climate-driven damages are largest for the health category, with the majority of damages in this category from the valuation estimates of premature mortality attributable to climate-driven changes in extreme temperature and air quality (O3 and PM2.5). Results from FrEDI also show that climate-driven damages vary by geographical region, with the Southeast experiencing the largest annual damages per capita (mean: $9,300 per person annually, 95 % CI: $1,800–$37,000 per person annually), whereas the smallest damages per capita are expected in the Southwest region (mean: $6,300 per person annually, 95 % CI: $840–$27,000 per person annually). Climate change impacts may also broaden existing societal inequalities, with Black or African Americans disproportionately affected by additional premature mortality from changes in air quality. This work significantly advances our understanding of the impacts from climate change to the U.S., in what U.S. regions impacts are happening, what sectors are being impacted, and which population groups being impacted the most.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States

Hartin

McDuffie

Noiva³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Moreover, a wide range of climate change impacts and disaster risks (especially the cascading and systemic risks) are understudied or challenging to quantify, and are missing from current evaluations of climate change and other disaster risks to lives and assets (Mamuji and Etkin 2019 ; Mcglade et al 2019 ; Rising et al 2022 ). Importantly, integrated risk and resilience management is about managing known risks but also about preparing for the unpredictable (Pirani and Tolkoff 2015 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first issue is that as human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has affected and will continue to threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people, the challenges of how to significantly reduce the emerging risks of climate change are enormous ((IPCC 2018 , 2022 ; Rising et al 2022 ). Currently, climate-related disasters account for more than 80% of disasters caused by natural hazards (UNDRR 2021 ).…”

Section: Climate Change Risks and Sustainable Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Their Linkages with Sustainable Development over the Past 30 Years: A Review

Wen

Wan

Ye³

et al. 2023

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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The severe damage and impacts caused by extreme events in a changing climate will not only make the sustainable development goals difficult to achieve, but also erode the hard-won development gains of the past. This article reviews the major impacts and challenges of disaster and climate change risks on sustainable development, and summarizes the courses and linkages of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and sustainable development over the past 30 years. Our findings show that the conceptual development of DRR actions has gone through three general phases: disaster management in the 1990s, risk management in the 2000s, and resilient management and development in the 2010s. Gradually, CCA has been widely implemented to overcome the adverse effects of climate change. A framework is proposed for tackling climate change and disaster risks in the context of resilient, sustainable development, indicating that CCA is not a subset of DRR while they have similarities and differences in their scope and emphasis. It is crucial to transform governance mechanisms at different levels, so as to integrate CCA and DRR to reduce disaster and climate change risks, and achieve safe growth and a resilient future in the era of the Anthropocene.

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“…Methodologically, many open questions remain. Many climate risks remain unquantified in economic terms 13 . Impact functions do not capture well the adaptive capacity to manage climate risks, but also the expenditures in adaptation.…”

Section: What Do Economic Damage Estimates Tell Us About Financing Lo...mentioning

confidence: 99%

What do economic damage estimates tell us about financing loss and damage?

Tavoni¹,

Andreoni

2022

Preprint

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Loss and damages is a key topic in international negotiations, but computing the financial claims associated with climate risks is complex. We show that climate-economic impact functions can be used to estimate the size of loss and damages. A fund equalizing climate risks and responsibilities is estimated at 380 USD Billion/yr by 2025, rising over time. We discuss a research agenda that can advance the policy debate.

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The missing risks of climate change

Cited by 112 publications

References 72 publications

Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States

Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States

Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Their Linkages with Sustainable Development over the Past 30 Years: A Review

What do economic damage estimates tell us about financing loss and damage?

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