Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States

Hartin, Corinne; McDuffie, Erin E.; Noiva, Karen; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Parthum, Bryan; Martinich, Jeremy; Barr, SL; Neumann, Jim; Willwerth, Jacqueline; Fawcett, Allen A.

doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-114

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…As damage functions are essentially a mathematical fit to a "by-degree" approach, the anchor for the high end of the damage function should be a low probability scenario. For example, Hartin et al (2023) uses piecewise linear extrapolation between data points to assess climate change damages across a given range of temperature scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How high is high enough? A multi-million-member ensemble analysis of future climate scenarios and their relevance

Sarofim¹,

Malek

McDuffie³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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High end emissions and forcing scenarios used to drive climate models provide key insights into possible high-risk climate change impacts in the 21st century and beyond. Given rapid and ongoing societal changes (e.g., population growth, energy demand, technology, etc.), debates are increasing on the continued relevance of higher forcing scenarios, such as those designed to reach 8.5 W/m2 by the end of the century (e.g., RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5). Here, we determine an updated probability of exceeding 8.5 W/m2 by 2100 by generating a multi-million-member ensemble from a newly developed database of probabilistic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, augmented here with improved characterization of aerosols and minor GHGs, coupled with the newest version of a reduced complexity climate model, with parameter distributions calibrated to match the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The probability of exceeding 8.5 W/m2 this century is estimated to be less than 1%: however, we discuss important rationales for the continued use of 8.5 W/m2 scenarios, including for generating high temperature scenarios for use in calibrating damage functions, characterizing climate in the 22nd century (probability of exceeding 8.5 W/m2 increases to ~7% by 2150), and assessing low-probability/high-impact futures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How high is high enough? A multi-million-member ensemble analysis of future climate scenarios and their relevance

Sarofim¹,

Malek

McDuffie³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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show abstract

“…This approach has been used in recent NPV analyses of climate health related damages (Hartin et al., 2023) and is generally consistent with the social cost of carbon framework, recently applied in Rennert et al. (2022a).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…This approach has been used in recent NPV analyses of climate health related damages (Hartin et al, 2023) and is generally consistent with the social cost of carbon framework, recently applied in Rennert et al (2022a). However, for consistency with country-specific VSL estimates, this analysis uses discount factors based on country-level consumption growth rather than the world average, which results in a more conservative NPV estimate (Section S5 in Supporting Information S1).…”

Section: Monetization Of Methane-ozone Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Social Cost of Ozone‐Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions

McDuffie,

Sarofim,

Raich

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Atmospheric methane directly affects surface temperatures and indirectly affects ozone, impacting human welfare, the economy, and environment. The social cost of methane (SC‐CH4) metric estimates the costs associated with an additional marginal metric ton of emissions. Current SC‐CH4 estimates do not consider the indirect impacts associated with ozone production from changes in methane. We use global model simulations and a new BenMAP webtool to estimate respiratory‐related deaths associated with increases in ozone from a pulse of methane emissions in 2020. By using an approach consistent with the current SC‐CH4 framework, we monetize and discount annual damages back to present day values. We estimate that the methane‐ozone mechanism is attributable to 760 (95% CI: 330–1200) respiratory‐related deaths per million metric tons of methane globally, for a global net present damage of $1800/mT (95% CI: $760–$2800/mT CH4; 2% Ramsey discount rate); this would double the current SC‐CH4 if included. These physical impacts are consistent with recent studies, but comparing direct costs is challenging. Economic damages are sensitive to uncertainties in the exposure and health risks associated with tropospheric ozone, assumptions about future projections of NOx emissions, socioeconomic conditions, and mortality rates, monetization parameters, and other factors. Our estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainties in ozone health risks. We also develop a reduced form model to test sensitivities to other parameters. The reduced form tool runs with a user‐supplied emissions pulse, as well as socioeconomic and precursor projections, enabling future integration of the methane‐ozone mechanism into the SC‐CH4 modeling framework.

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“…This approach has been used in recent NPV analyses of climate health related damages [Hartin et al, 2023] and is generally consistent with the social cost of carbon framework, recently applied in . However, for consistency with country-specific VSL estimates, this analysis uses discount factors based on country-level consumption growth rather than the world average, which results in a more conservative NPV estimate (Section S5).…”

Section: Monetization Of Methane-ozone Mortalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts from Methane Emissions

McDuffie,

Sarofim,

Raich

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Atmospheric methane directly affects surface temperatures and indirectly affects ozone, impacting human welfare, the economy, and environment. The social cost of methane (SC-CH) metric estimates the costs associated with an additional marginal metric ton of emissions. Current SC-CH estimates do not consider the indirect impacts associated with ozone production from changes in methane. We use global model simulations and a new BenMAP webtool to estimate respiratory-related deaths associated with increases in ozone from a pulse of methane emissions in 2020. By using an approach consistent with the current SC-CH framework, we monetize and discount annual damages back to present day values. We estimate that the methane-ozone mechanism is attributable to 760 (95% CI: 330-1200) respiratory-related deaths per million metric tons (MMT) of methane globally, for a global net present damage of $1800/mT (95% CI: $760-$2800/mT CH; 2% Ramsey discount rate); this would double the current SC-CH if included. These physical impacts are consistent with recent studies, but comparing direct costs is challenging. Economic damages are sensitive to uncertainties in the exposure and health risks associated with tropospheric ozone, assumptions about future projections of NO emissions, socioeconomic conditions, and mortality rates, monetization parameters, and other factors. Our estimates are highly sensitive to uncertainties in ozone health risks. We also develop a reduced form model to test sensitivities to other parameters. The reduced form tool runs with a user-supplied emissions pulse, as well as socioeconomic and precursor projections, enabling future integration of the methane-ozone mechanism into the SC-CH modeling framework.

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Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States

Cited by 3 publications

References 21 publications

How high is high enough? A multi-million-member ensemble analysis of future climate scenarios and their relevance

How high is high enough? A multi-million-member ensemble analysis of future climate scenarios and their relevance

The Social Cost of Ozone‐Related Mortality Impacts From Methane Emissions

The Social Cost of Ozone-Related Mortality Impacts from Methane Emissions

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