Antarctic snowfall exhibits substantial variability over a range of time scales, with consequent impacts on global sea level and the mass balance of the ice sheets. To assess how snowfall has affected the thickness of the ice sheets in Antarctica and to provide an extended perspective, we derived a 50-year time series of snowfall accumulation over the continent by combining model simulations and observations primarily from ice cores. There has been no statistically significant change in snowfall since the 1950s, indicating that Antarctic precipitation is not mitigating global sea level rise as expected, despite recent winter warming of the overlying atmosphere.

Iceberg calving from all Antarctic ice shelves has never been directly measured, despite playing a crucial role in ice sheet mass balance. Rapid changes to iceberg calving naturally arise from the sporadic detachment of large tabular bergs but can also be triggered by climate forcing. Here we provide a direct empirical estimate of mass loss due to iceberg calving and melting from Antarctic ice shelves. We find that between 2005 and 2011, the total mass loss due to iceberg calving of 755 ± 24 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) is only half the total loss due to basal melt of 1516 ± 106 Gt/y. However, we observe widespread retreat of ice shelves that are currently thinning. Net mass loss due to iceberg calving for these ice shelves (302 ± 27 Gt/y) is comparable in magnitude to net mass loss due to basal melt (312 ± 14 Gt/y). Moreover, we find that iceberg calving from these decaying ice shelves is dominated by frequent calving events, which are distinct from the less frequent detachment of isolated tabular icebergs associated with ice shelves in neutral or positive mass balance regimes. Our results suggest that thinning associated with ocean-driven increased basal melt can trigger increased iceberg calving, implying that iceberg calving may play an overlooked role in the demise of shrinking ice shelves, and is more sensitive to ocean forcing than expected from steady state calving estimates.

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[1] By incorporating recently available remote sensing data, we investigated the mass balance for all individual tributary glacial basins of the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system, East Antarctica. On the basis of the ice flow information derived from SAR interferometry and ICESat laser altimetry, we have determined the spatial configuration of eight tributary drainage basins of the Lambert-Amery glacial system. By combining the coherence information from SAR interferometry and the texture information from SAR and MODIS images, we have interpreted and refined the grounding line position. We calculated ice volume flux of each tributary glacial basin based on the ice velocity field derived from Radarsat three-pass interferometry together with ice thickness data interpolated from Australian and Russian airborne radio echo sounding (RES) surveys and inferred from ICESat laser altimetry data. Our analysis reveals that three tributary basins have a significant net positive imbalance, while five other subbasins are slightly positive or close to zero balance. Overall, in contrast to previous studies, we find that the grounded ice in Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system has a positive mass imbalance of 22.9 ± 4.4 Gt a . The melting rate decreases rapidly from the grounding zone to the ice shelf front. Significant basal refreezing is detected in the downstream section of the ice shelf. The mass balance estimates for both the grounded ice sheet and the ice shelf mass differ substantially from other recent estimates.

Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing'an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach, including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.

respectively. We find a much larger total basal melting and net melting than the results for the whole Amery Ice Shelf derived from previous modeling and oceanographic measurements.

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