The Influence of Different Degradation Characteristics on the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Silicon Photovoltaics: A Threefold Analysis

Abstract

The environmental footprint of photovoltaic electricity is usually assessed using nominated power or life cycle energy output. If performance degradation is considered, a linear reduction in lifetime energy output is assumed. However, research has shown that the decrease in energy output over time does not necessarily follow a linear degradation pattern but can vary at different points in the module’s lifetime. Further, photovoltaic modules follow different degradation patterns in different climate zones. In this study, we address the influence of different degradation aspects on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PV electricity. Firstly, we apply different non-linear degradation scenarios to evaluate the GHG emissions and show that the differences in GHG emissions in comparison to a linear degradation can be up to 6.0%. Secondly, we use the ERA5 dataset generated by the ECMWF to calculate location-dependent degradation rates and apply them to estimate the location-specific GHG emissions. Due to the reduction in lifetime energy output, there is a direct correlation between the calculated degradation rate and GHG emissions. Thirdly, we assess the impact of climate change on degradation rates and on the respective GHG emissions of photovoltaic electricity using different climate change scenarios. In a best-case scenario, the GHG emissions are estimated to increase by around 5% until the year 2100 and by around 105% by 2100 for a worst-case scenario.

Accelerated degradation of photovoltaic modules under a future warmer climate

“…Further, the dependency of module degradation mechanisms on meteorological parameters makes it highly susceptible to future climate change. Even though degradation rates have been studied for specific sites, 7,11,15,16,[19][20][21] to date, there has yet to be a study that predicts the future degradation modes and estimates future degradation rates spatio-temporally for Australia under different climate change scenarios. Considering the large-scale PV deployment in Australia, it is essential to estimate the future degradation rates accurately before investing.…”