As photovoltaic penetration of the power grid increases, accurate predictions of return on investment require accurate prediction of decreased power output over time. Degradation rates must be known in order to predict power delivery. This article reviews degradation rates of flatplate terrestrial modules and systems reported in published literature from field testing throughout the last 40 years. Nearly 2000 degradation rates, measured on individual modules or entire systems, have been assembled from the literature, showing a median value of 0.5%/year. The review consists of three parts: a brief historical outline, an analytical summary of degradation rates, and a detailed bibliography partitioned by technology.
Published data on photovoltaic (PV) degradation measurements were aggregated and re‐examined. The subject has seen an increased interest in recent years resulting in more than 11 000 degradation rates in almost 200 studies from 40 different countries. As studies have grown in number and size, we found an impact from sampling bias attributable to size and accuracy. Because of the correlational nature of this study we examined the data in several ways to minimize this bias. We found median degradation for x‐Si technologies in the 0.5–0.6%/year range with the mean in the 0.8–0.9%/year range. Hetero‐interface technology (HIT) and microcrystalline silicon (µc‐Si) technologies, although not as plentiful, exhibit degradation around 1%/year and resemble thin‐film products more closely than x‐Si. Several studies showing low degradation for copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) have emerged. Higher degradation for cadmium telluride (CdTe) has been reported, but these findings could reflect a convolution of less accurate studies and longer stabilization periods for some products. Significant deviations for beginning‐of‐life measurements with respect to nameplate rating have been documented over the last 35 years. Therefore, degradation rates that use nameplate rating as reference may be significantly impacted. Studies that used nameplate rating as reference but used solar simulators showed less variation than similar studies using outdoor measurements, even when accounting for different climates. This could be associated with confounding effects of measurement uncertainty and soiling that take place outdoors. Hotter climates and mounting configurations that lead to sustained higher temperatures may lead to higher degradation in some, but not all, products. Wear‐out non‐linearities for the worst performing modules have been documented in a few select studies that took multiple measurements of an ensemble of modules during the lifetime of the system. However, the majority of these modules exhibit a fairly linear decline. Modeling these non‐linearities, whether they occur at the beginning‐of‐life or end‐of‐life in the PV life cycle, has an important impact on the levelized cost of energy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Over the past decade, the global cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity has grown exponentially, reaching 591 GW in 2019. Rapid progress was driven in large part by improvements in solar cell and module efficiencies, reduction in manufacturing costs and the realization of levelized costs of electricity that are now generally less than other energy sources and approaching similar costs with storage included. Given this success, it is a particularly fitting time to assess the state of the photovoltaics field and the technology milestones that must be achieved to maximize future impact and forward momentum. This roadmap outlines the critical areas of development in all of the major PV conversion technologies, advances needed to enable terawatt-scale PV installation, and cross-cutting topics on reliability, characterization, and applications. Each perspective provides a status update, summarizes the limiting immediate and long-term technical challenges and highlights breakthroughs that are needed to address them. In total, this roadmap is intended to guide researchers, funding agencies and industry in identifying the areas of development that will have the most impact on PV technology in the upcoming years.
The extensive photovoltaic field reliability literature was analyzed and reviewed. Future work is prioritized based upon information assembled from recent installations, and inconsistencies in degradation mode identification are discussed to help guide future publication on this subject. Reported failure rates of photovoltaic modules fall mostly in the range of other consumer products; however, the long expected useful life of modules may not allow for direct comparison. In general, degradation percentages are reported to decrease appreciably in newer installations that are deployed after the year 2000. However, these trends may be convoluted with varying manufacturing and installation quality world-wide. Modules in hot and humid climates show considerably higher degradation modes than those in desert and moderate climates, which warrants further investigation. Delamination and diode/j-box issues are also more frequent in hot and humid climates than in other climates. The highest concerns of systems installed in the last 10 years appear to be hot spots followed by internal circuitry discoloration. Encapsulant discoloration was the most common degradation mode, particularly in older systems. In newer systems, encapsulant discoloration appears in hotter climates, but to a lesser degree. Thin-film degradation modes are dominated by glass breakage and absorber corrosion, although the breadth of information for thin-film modules is much smaller than for x-Si.
Photovoltaic (PV) reliability and durability have seen increased interest in recent years. Historically, and as a preliminarily reasonable approximation, linear degradation rates have been used to quantify long-term module and system performance. The underlying assumption of linearity can be violated at the beginning of the life, as has been well documented, especially for thin-film technology. Additionally, non-linearities in the wear-out phase can have significant economic impact and appear to be linked to different failure modes. In addition, associating specific degradation and failure modes with specific time series behavior will aid in duplicating these degradation modes in accelerated tests and, eventually, in service life prediction. In this paper, we discuss different degradation modes and how some of these may cause approximately linear degradation within the measurement uncertainty (e.g., modules that were mainly affected by encapsulant discoloration) while other degradation modes lead to distinctly non-linear degradation (e.g., hot spots caused by cracked cells or solder bond failures and corrosion). The various behaviors are summarized with the goal of aiding in predictions of what may be seen in other systems. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
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