The Influence of Childbearing Regional Contexts on Ideal Family Size in Europe

The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe

“…The authors showed that in those regional fertility contexts where the mean actual number of children of the old (parents') generations is lower, young individuals have a higher probability to prefer smaller families (Testa and Grilli 2006). In addition, the authors found that such a relationship is stronger in areas with below-replacement fertility levels, especially when fertility is below 1.5 children.…”

“…The analysis by Testa and Grilli (2006) may provide an answer to a possible key criticism of such a hypothesis of a downward spiral of actual and ideal family size, namely, that declining fertility already experienced in the previous decades has not yet been accompanied by generally decreasing fertility ideals. An exciting new test of this hypothesis will be possible when the data from the Eurobarometer 2006, which has questions on ideal family size identical to that of 2001, become available.…”

“…In addition, the authors found that such a relationship is stronger in areas with below-replacement fertility levels, especially when fertility is below 1.5 children. Figure 2, taken from their analysis, plots the mean regional number of children born to the generation aged 40 to 60 versus the individual probability of preferring a given family size of young individuals aged 20 to 39 coming from the estimates of the multilevel model used by Testa and Grilli (2006). Although the figure has to be interpreted in a cross-section framework-the data come from one cross-sectional survey and simply reflect the regional differences-the picture can shed some light on the reasons why the two-child norm has been so stable in the last few years: only at very low levels of actual fertility, the two-child norm starts to decrease and the ideal one-child family becomes more and more likely.…”

“…Using a multilevel approach, Testa and Grilli (2006) give an empirical foundation to the assumption that changing fertility ideals lag behind the changes in actual reproductive behaviour, and interpret this relationship in an intergenerational micro-macro framework, where the context plays a major role. The authors showed that in those regional fertility contexts where the mean actual number of children of the old (parents') generations is lower, young individuals have a higher probability to prefer smaller families (Testa and Grilli 2006).…”

Are daughters’ childbearing intentions related to their mothers’ socio-economic status?

“…The intentions to perform a behaviour (in this study, fertility) are determined by personal factors (i.e., attitudes related to the perceived benefits and costs of reproduction), social influences (i.e., subjective norms based on social approval from relevant others), and an individual's perception of her/his ability to perform such a behaviour (i.e., perceived behavioural control) (see, for example, Iacovou and Tavares 2011). Empirical studies in the fertility domain have shown that all three factors -attitudes, norms, and perceived behaviour controlinfluence reproductive intentions and behaviour, although attitudes and norms are more relevant at the beginning of the reproductive career while perceived control plays a stronger role after the birth of the first child (e.g., Billari, Philipov, and Testa 2009;Mills et al 2008;Testa and Grilli 2006).…”