Nigeria has always been affected by terrorism but since the late 2000s, there has been a sharp increase in terrorist acts, perpetrated by Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen terror groups. The rise in terrorism and insurgency has decimated communities and farmers have fled to protected camps. In view of that background, this paper estimates the effect of terrorism on agricultural output in Nigeria over the period 1971-2019. Our empirical results provide evidence which indicates that terrorism (as measured by the number of fatalities) has a negative and significant effect on agricultural output. Furthermore, this negative impact was larger over the period 2011-2019. This period corresponds with the onset of escalated violence from Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen terror groups. The following policy implications were deduced. First, government should pursue credible policies in reducing the number ofviolent attacks on farmers. Second, nomadic cattle herders should be trained and encouraged to adopt modern techniques in animal husbandry.Third, government should equip forest rangers and guards to help safeguard rural and farming communities.agricultural output, boko Haram, fulani herdsmen, nigeria, terrorism
| INTRODUCTION AND STUDY BACKGROUNDOver the last two decades, the share of employment in agriculture for Nigeria has averaged 42% (World Development Indicators, 2019). Thus, the sector accounts for the largest share of employment and the country is heavily reliant on it. Further, the agricultural sector can play an important role in a country's pursuit of socioeconomic development (Mkwambisi et al., 2011). The government in Nigeria, in collaboration with international agencies, such as the World Bank and African Development Bank, has pursued policies aimed at boosting the agricultural sector. Nevertheless, the efficiency of these policies may be hampered by terrorism. Between 1971 and 2010, Nigeria recorded a total of 401 terrorist incidents and 1403 fatalities from terrorism. Between 2020 and 2019, the total number of terrorist incidents and fatalities was 4661 and 25,570, respectively (GTD, 2021).Terrorism in Nigeria is mostly in the form of killing, destruction of infrastructure, assault and kidnapping. Some of the major causes of terrorism in Nigeria lie in state failure, religious intolerance and ethnic fragmentation (Anyanwu, 2014;Cook, 2011;Kah, 2017). In addition, the country is faced with the challenges of food production and the country is heavily reliant on food imports (Ibukun & Adebayo, 2021;Olaoye, 2014). Some existing studies have identified climate change, lack of investment, credit constraints, small-scale farming practices, etc., as some of the factors affecting food production