No abstract

What are the major factors affecting Nigeria’s cocoa export flows? In answering this question, the authors suggest a commodity-specific gravity model with three different analytical approaches, (the Heckman Sample Selection Model, the Generalised Least Square, and the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood), based on a period of 24 years of panel data for Nigeria and it’s 36 importing partners to estimate the models. The results showed that GDP, exchange rate policy, WTO, EU, and colonial link are positively associated with the Nigerian cocoa export flows. Further, the negative impact of the GDP per capita, landlocked, distance, AU, and ECOWAS are observed. The need for the expansion of exports to the trading partners, especially the EU members (Netherlands, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Spain, etc.), Canada, Malaysia, and the USA is particularly highlighted. These results are important for the formulation of future trade policy that could boost up the Nigerian cocoa exports. This would eventually contribute to the diversification of the Nigerian exports and also enhance the country’s foreign earnings.

In the context of supply-side structural reform, revealing the characteristics of spatial-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of China's apple production layout is of great significance to ensure apple supply and demand balance and timely adjustment of industrial policies and regional layout strategies. Based on national and provincial apple production data from 1978 to 2016, this study used the apple production concentration index to analyse the evolution characteristics of regional apple production patterns in China. A theoretical analysis framework was established and a spatial econometric model was used to quantitatively explore the influencing factors of China's apple production layout. The results showed that, first, since the reform and opening-up policy, a general trend of fluctuating growth was found for apple production in China. The centre of apple production layout moved in the southwest direction, with the shift from the Bohai Bay region to the Loess Plateau region. Second, apple production had a significant spatial correlation, while the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually decreased. Third, these changes were significantly influenced by apple comparative income, infrastructure, policies, and climatic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to continue optimizing and adjusting the apple spatial layout to enhance the technological progress and economic effect of the apple industry and to ensure the stability and balance of regional supply and demand.

This study uses an extended gravity model to examine the determinants, efficiency and potential of agri-food exports from Nigeria to the EU for the 1995–2019 period. It uses a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to estimate the extended gravity model. The results show that the economic size (GDP) of Nigeria and the EU countries, as well as bilateral distance, positively determine agri-food exports from Nigeria to the EU. Also, the results show that Nigeria's agri-food exports to the EU are negatively determined by the income (per capita GDP) of Nigeria and its EU trading countries, bilateral exchange rate and EU new member states (NMS). The results further show that Nigeria scores relatively low in terms of the efficiency of its agri-food exports to the EU countries. On a final note, the study shows that Nigeria's agri-food exports with the EU have a relatively large potential that has not been exploited. We document policy recommendations in this study.

PurposeIn this paper, the authors derive time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of the Cambodian rice sector from 1995 to 2018 and examine the key determinants of the REC.Design/methodology/approachThree different REC indexes are calculated in this paper. The authors also developed the relative symmetric export competitiveness (RSEC) index for calculation of comparative advantage. The short-run regression (SRR) model was applied for capturing the determinants of the REC.FindingsThe study results reveal that Cambodia's rice exports became relatively competitive over time. The key findings suggest the Cambodian REC was strengthened as a result of a successful implementation of rice policy and rectangular strategy. The benefits gained from EBA and BRI were found to be the factors contributed to the REC. The higher per capita income had a positive effect on the REC, while higher domestic prices reduced the REC in some phases of the sectoral development.Research limitations/implicationsFurther research is needed in two directions. First, the future studies might focus on other agro-products of Cambodia. Second, the development of the crop-specific factor endowment (CFE) model to consider the effect of endowment factors on the REC could be preferred in light of the data availability.Originality/valueThe research enriches the literature on the agricultural trade and provides a basis for further studies. This work makes a few contributions. First, it is the first study on the REC analysis for the Cambodian rice sector. Second, the latest 24-year data sets were covered. Third, a wide range of comparisons of REC among the world's top rice exporters was provided following implications of the various economic policies and foreign policy strategies, such as RS, EBA and BRI.

ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ ! ÿ " ÿ ÿ # ÿ $ % ÿ ÿ ÿ "ÿ ÿ # # ÿ ÿ ÿ " ÿ "& ÿ ÿ ÿ ' " ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ ! ÿ # ( ÿ ÿ ) ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ )# ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿQ4P 7 Rÿ "ÿ Q4P 7 6ÿ ) ÿ :ÿ # ) ÿ ÿ # ÿ *' "ÿ ÿ & ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ :ÿ ÿ & ÿ + /061 ÿ + :ÿ ÿ & . ÿ /06%1 + :ÿ ÿ & . ÿ

The purpose of this research is to study the determinants of export, import and overall trade performance. The article employed the panel gravity model along with the analytical approaches of the fixed-effects, random-effects, Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) and Heckman selection models. This analysis is based on a panel data set from 1989 to 2015 (27 years) for a total of 20 selected largest leather importing partners. The findings are consistent with the Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) theory, meaning that Bangladesh could chase for the comparative advantage in the leather industry through the effective planning and efficient utilization of its abundant population of 163 million. It is demonstrated that the wealthier nations are likely to trade in the Bangladeshi leather sector. But the key problem in the ways of trade is the presence of high trade and transport costs. Among the major causes of high-trade costs in Bangladesh are the cumbersome and complex cross-border trading practices, which also increase the possibility of corruption. Moreover, the trading of leather products is negatively influenced by the COVID-19. These problems and issues need to be addressed to facilitate Bangladesh’s leather exports. Also, Bangladesh is a founding member of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Exporting to Chinese consumer markets and using network connectivity to boost leather trade with other participating countries in the BRI would create a considerable growth potential for Bangladesh. To this end, the issue of technological developments and research innovations could be prioritized. This work provides both industrial and policy directions for future research on trade of leather products by means of an application of the gravity model. There are some methodological innovations of the model. The concluding remarks have generated some insights and lessons that would be useful in the development of leather trade across the world.

Purpose This paper aims to derive the time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of the Nigerian cocoa sector against Nigeria’s share of world agricultural exports (REC_WA) and world merchandise exports (REC_WM) from 1995 to 2018. By concentrating on different factors such as demand and supply capacity, price factors and exchange rate, the authors examine the determinants of REC. Design/methodology/approach The authors calculated three different REC indexes. The authors also developed the relative symmetric export competitiveness index for comparative advantage calculation and avoiding the possible bias. The determinants of REC for Nigerian cocoa were captured using the short-run regression (SRR) model. Findings The study showed that Nigeria’s cocoa exports are still competitive despite experiencing some declining stages. Based on the SRR model, higher per capita income had a positive effect on the REC, while higher domestic prices significantly reduced the REC of cocoa. Further, the African Growth Opportunity Act agreement adversely affected the REC of cocoa. Originality/value This study provides a foundation for future research and enhances the literature on agricultural trade. This research makes a few contributions both from a scientific and a policy perspective. First, it is the first study on the REC analysis for the Nigerian cocoa industry. Second, a wide range of comparisons of REC among the world’s largest cocoa exporters was provided following implications of the various economic policies and local policy strategies. Third, the latest 24-year data sets were covered.