Estimating the effect of terrorism on agricultural production in Nigeria

Abstract

Nigeria has always been affected by terrorism but since the late 2000s, there has been a sharp increase in terrorist acts, perpetrated by Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen terror groups. The rise in terrorism and insurgency has decimated communities and farmers have fled to protected camps. In view of that background, this paper estimates the effect of terrorism on agricultural output in Nigeria over the period 1971-2019. Our empirical results provide evidence which indicates that terrorism (as measured by the number of fatalities) has a negative and significant effect on agricultural output. Furthermore, this negative impact was larger over the period 2011-2019. This period corresponds with the onset of escalated violence from Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen terror groups. The following policy implications were deduced. First, government should pursue credible policies in reducing the number ofviolent attacks on farmers. Second, nomadic cattle herders should be trained and encouraged to adopt modern techniques in animal husbandry.Third, government should equip forest rangers and guards to help safeguard rural and farming communities.agricultural output, boko Haram, fulani herdsmen, nigeria, terrorism | INTRODUCTION AND STUDY BACKGROUNDOver the last two decades, the share of employment in agriculture for Nigeria has averaged 42% (World Development Indicators, 2019). Thus, the sector accounts for the largest share of employment and the country is heavily reliant on it. Further, the agricultural sector can play an important role in a country's pursuit of socioeconomic development (Mkwambisi et al., 2011). The government in Nigeria, in collaboration with international agencies, such as the World Bank and African Development Bank, has pursued policies aimed at boosting the agricultural sector. Nevertheless, the efficiency of these policies may be hampered by terrorism. Between 1971 and 2010, Nigeria recorded a total of 401 terrorist incidents and 1403 fatalities from terrorism. Between 2020 and 2019, the total number of terrorist incidents and fatalities was 4661 and 25,570, respectively (GTD, 2021).Terrorism in Nigeria is mostly in the form of killing, destruction of infrastructure, assault and kidnapping. Some of the major causes of terrorism in Nigeria lie in state failure, religious intolerance and ethnic fragmentation (Anyanwu, 2014;Cook, 2011;Kah, 2017). In addition, the country is faced with the challenges of food production and the country is heavily reliant on food imports (Ibukun & Adebayo, 2021;Olaoye, 2014). Some existing studies have identified climate change, lack of investment, credit constraints, small-scale farming practices, etc., as some of the factors affecting food production

Is terrorism a spoilsport for the sustainability of economic development?: evidence from the economic community of West African states

“…Noubissi and Njangang (2020) found in their study that terrorism is negatively associated with agricultural productivity growth and agricultural labor in African countries. Okafor and Chikalipah (2021) also lead to the same results.…”

“…To my knowledge, this is the first attempt to establish terrorism implications in terms of development sustainability in the ECOWAS region. Okafor and Chikalipah (2021) study focused on Nigeria but they dealt with the effect of terrorism on agricultural production. The second contribution is that i try to find an empirical validation of the hypothesis according to which an increase in the level of education and improvement in income distribution could reduce the impact of terrorism on sustainability development.…”

Does E-Governance Reduce Income Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence From a Dynamic Panel

“…Likewise, income inequality, as noticed by Ajide and Alimi (2021) could undermine human development and increase terrorism, which by extension, could retard economic growth in developing countries, especially in Africa. This has been substantiated by Okafor and Chikalipah (2021) who argued that agriculture development in Nigeria has been negatively damaged by the rise in terrorism, which results from high levels of income inequality. In the same spirit, Xu et al (2021) have pointed out the detrimental effect of income inequality on international investment in developing countries, especially those in Africa.…”

A Macro Econometric Model of Human Capital Development and Activity Sectors Performance in Nigeria

“…As already established, these sectors have a higher linkage than any other sector of the Nigerian economy. There are scores of empirical studies that examined the relationship between human capital and single components of these activity sector (Amassoma & Nwosa, 2011;Adelowokan, 2012;Isola & Alani, 2012;Ajadi & Adebakin, 2014;Jaiyeoba, 2015;Borojo & Jiang, 2015;Osoba & Tella, 2017;Ogunleye et al, 2017;Dawud, 2020;Leshoro & Leshoro, 2013;Kifordu, 2015;Karim & Shabbir, 2020;Widani & Malanga, 2015;Asghar & et al,2017;Adejumo & Adejumo, 2017;Hena et al, 2019;Obukwelu, 2019;Eichengreen & Gupta, 2009;Bingilar & Etate, 2014;Gidado et al, 2014, Worlu & Omodero, 2016. The results of these studies are mixed-up and the macro econometric approach is quite novel to these studies.…”