The Impact of Polls on Public Opinion

Abstract

There are three ways in which polls can influence the public opinion they purport merely to measure. Just being interviewed tends to arouse interest and to encourage some respondents to inform themselves and to clarify their views on the subject. It may even increase electoral participation. Second, there is little evidence that knowledge of where the majority stands has anything like the much feared bandwagon effect. Although many people are aware of poll findings, they react to these in more diverse ways, including tactical voting, than the bandwagon hypothesis implies. These reactions may in turn produce a third effect. Feeling that there is little support for one's viewpoint can discourage and even intimidate the advocates of a minority viewpoint, keeping that issue from being raised. Here polls can either act as a corrective or put a damper on discussion, making the minority view appear even less popular than it actually is.

The loyalty of football fans — We'll support you evermore?

“…Lang and Lang found a tendency to 'back the underdog' in certain circumstances. 29 This is often considered to be a very British trait. It has also been found in US sport: Bristow and Sebastian observed that followers of unsuccessful clubs tended to downgrade their expectations of 'product performance'.…”

New Evidence About the Existence of a Bandwagon Effect in the Opinion Formation Process

“…Lang and Lang (1984) have argued that the bandwagon effect should manifest itself when opinion on an issue is fluid rather than stable. Our study brings together a great deal of evidence that allows us to test this and explain when and in what context the bandwagon effect is at work in the opinion formation process.…”

Los Estudios de Opinión y su Influencia en las Preferencias de las Personas

“…Areni y colaboradores (1998) examinaron en Australia cómo la mayor o menor relevancia asignada a un tema podría estar asociada al efecto de los estudios de opinión. Ellos pudieron comprobar que en aquellos temas que las personas evaluaban como secundarios, la opinión grupal era utilizada como una clave muy importante a la hora de asumir una postura, lo cual no ocurría en asuntos que generaban un mayor involucramiento (ver también, Lang & Lang, 1984). Un segundo factor relevante se refiere al tipo de votación realizada (referéndum de apoyo o rechazo a una opción versus elección entre diferentes alternativas).…”

“…Dicho de otro modo, se ha tratado de identificar qué variables aparecen como mediadoras del potencial efecto (amplificándolo o aminorándolo) que tienen las encuestas en sus receptores (Areni, Ferrell & Wilcox, 1998;Lang & Lang, 1984). Al respecto se ha explorado el rol que tiene una serie de elementos tanto de las audiencias como del estímulo (encuestas) de modo de determinar algunos de los factores relevantes que ayudan a incrementar o diminuir la persuasividad de los estudios de opinión (Areni, Ferrell & Wilcox, 2000).…”