The impact of oil price shocks on selected Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators

Abstract

This article studies the correlation between world oil prices and the selected Kazakhstan's macroeconomic variables using the method of vector autoregression (VAR). As expected, the macroeconomic variables under consideration demonstrate a significant correlation with oil price fluctuations. However, the results of the research show a certain discrepancy with the earlier researches, which considered previous negative oil price shock of 2008 in the form of quicker reaction to such shocks. This means that the dependence of Kazakh economy on oil price fluctuations increased since the previous oil price plunge 1. In this regard, it is worth pointing out that none of these researches targeted the relationship between oil prices and Kazakh macro-economy after June 2014, when the last oil price shock began. Another important result is the timeframe during which the influence of oil price shocks is actually significant. These results are important for understanding the processes happening in the economies of Kazakhstan and other oil-exporting countries.

Modelling Five Variables Bvar for Economic Policies and Growth in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia: 2005–2020

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Modelling the Monetary Impact of Oil Price Volatility in Nigeria: Evidence from GARCH Models

“…It is also observed that structural inflation accompanies sharp declines in oil prices more than monetary inflation. Akhmedov (2019) investigated the correlation between world oil prices and selected Kazakhstan's macroeconomic variables using the VAR method. The macroeconomic variables under consideration demonstrate a significant correlation with oil price fluctuations.…”

Risk management in the financing of ICO projects: prospects for the use of modern technologies in Kazakhstan

“…Summing up all the above, we note that the ICO market is only an emerging market, which is not without its advantages and disadvantages, but we must not forget that everything the new needs freedom for development and self-realization, therefore, by establishing legislative barriers, it is necessary to leave the ways and opportunities for the economy to move forward [25,26,27].…”