This article studies the correlation between world oil prices and the selected Kazakhstan's macroeconomic variables using the method of vector autoregression (VAR). As expected, the macroeconomic variables under consideration demonstrate a significant correlation with oil price fluctuations. However, the results of the research show a certain discrepancy with the earlier researches, which considered previous negative oil price shock of 2008 in the form of quicker reaction to such shocks. This means that the dependence of Kazakh economy on oil price fluctuations increased since the previous oil price plunge 1. In this regard, it is worth pointing out that none of these researches targeted the relationship between oil prices and Kazakh macro-economy after June 2014, when the last oil price shock began. Another important result is the timeframe during which the influence of oil price shocks is actually significant. These results are important for understanding the processes happening in the economies of Kazakhstan and other oil-exporting countries.
The situation with crude oil shipments from Kazakhstan to the European Union has seriously deteriorated since 24 February 2022 when Russia started its invasion of Ukraine. A series of different incidents, which complicated these deliveries, started soon after the beginning of the invasion and this has again brought to light the need to diversify the export routes for the Kazakh crude oil. In spite of numerous previous appeals, the dependence on the transit via the Russian territory only increased over the last years. This paper analyses the reasons for this increased dependence, considers the alternative routes and their attending circumstances and attempts to suggest potential ways out of this situation. Considering this topic, it is essential to mention that Kazakhstan is among the five top suppliers of crude oil to the European Union, and, at the same time, the European Union is the biggest importer of Kazakh crude oil.
This article is a study of the current situation with rail deliveries of bulk oil cargoes from the Caspian region to Europe. It addresses the importance of these deliveries for the European energy security, the salient features of rail transportation of crude oil and refined products in this direction, the main transportation routes, and, finally, describes existing and potential problems with rail deliveries of bulk oil cargoes from the Caspian region to Europe and suggests potential resolutions for these problems. In spite of the serious importance of the topic, the overall number of scientific publications related to it is limited. Another problem is that existing scientific literature sources tend to cover general transportation or geopolitical aspects without paying due attention to the rail transportation, logistical problems, related to the current topic, and how to resolve them. The author attempts to fill these knowledge gaps by collecting, processing, and analysing first-hand information from the main market players. The author concludes the article emphasising the importance of the railway transport for deliveries of bulk oil cargoes and pointing out that several important actions are required, namely the actual introduction of a competitive freight market and transition from transport to logistics corridors, support from governments and railway administrations and proactive position of shippers.
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