The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement

Vignoli, Daniele; Tocchioni, Valentina; Mattei, Alessandra

doi:10.1016/j.alcr.2019.100308

Cited by 59 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…In addition, women who lost their job may aim to have a child to improve their selfconfidence and social status (Friedman et al 1994). All in all, the individual fertility responses to economic uncertainty are contingent on a wide range of circumstances and normative constraints and are likely to vary by age, sex and social status as well as by broader institutional conditions including welfare and family policies (Kreyenfeld 2010;Schmitt 2012;Vignoli et al 2012Vignoli et al , 2019. However, a vast body of research based on aggregate-level data shows that fertility is pro-cyclical and tends to fall when economic conditions deteriorate (Sobotka et al 2011), suggesting that during the economic downturns most people tend to postpone childbearing rather than use the period of uncertainty to form a family.…”

Section: Economic Downturn and Fertility: Past Research And Key Objecmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

2020

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This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

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Section: Economic Downturn and Fertility: Past Research And Key Objecmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

2020

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“…The empirical demographic tradition operationalized the forces of economic uncertainty through objective indicators of individuals' labor market situation, such as holding a temporary contract or being unemployed (Kreyenfeld 2010;Kreyenfeld, Andersson, and Pailhé 2012;Vignoli, Drefahl, and De Santis 2012;Mills and Blossfeld 2013;Kreyenfeld 2015;Busetta, Mendola, and Vignoli 2019;Vignoli, Tocchioni, and Mattei 2019). Nonetheless, although certainly worth taking into account, their (negative) impact on fertility has been shown not to be of overwhelming importance (Alderotti et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

Vignoli

Guetto

Bazzani

et al. 2020

Genus

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The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere “statistical shadow of the past”, and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their “narrative of the future” – imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the “shared narratives” produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.

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“…However, the fertility consequences of the crisis are not expected to be equally distributed across countries. Demographic, as well as economic, contextual features may support or further reduce individuals' pre-crisis fertility plans, by reducing (or not) the uncertainty derived by the negative economic trend (Adsera 2004, Kreyenfeld 2016, Caltabiano et al 2017, Vignoli et al 2019. In Europe, the climate of uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic might have been stressed by the still ongoing effect of the 2008 financial crisis, especially in Southern European countries where young people and women's employment indicators and fertility rates are the lowest .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK

Luppi¹,

Arpino²,

Rosina³

2020

Preprint

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This study offers an overview on changes in fertility plan during the COVID-19 crisis of a representative sample of the young population (18-34) in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK. Data were collected between March 27 and April 7, 2020. Our results show that fertility plans have been negatively revised in all countries, but not in the same way. In Germany and France fertility plans changed moderately, with many people still planning or postponing their decision to have a child during the 2020. In Italy, instead, the proportion of abandoners is much higher than in other countries, while comparatively it shows a lower proportion of those deciding to postpone their plans. Moreover, the demographic characteristics of the individuals seem to be associated with fertility plans in different ways across countries. In Italy, abandoners are common among individuals younger than 30 and those without a tertiary education. In Germany, abandoners are slightly more prevalent in the regions most affected by the COVID-19. In UK, fertility plans have been most frequently abandoned by individuals that expect the worse impact of the crisis on their future income. Finally, in France and Spain we did not observe a clear pattern for revision of fertility plans. These results suggest that different mechanisms are at work, due to the different economic, demographic and policy pre-crisis background and post-crisis prospects. Low-fertility contexts, in particular, appear to be more at risk of a fertility loss due to the crisis.

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The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement

Cited by 59 publications

References 51 publications

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK

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