The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

All-time low period fertility in Finland: drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications

“…There is also individual-level evidence of a positive relationship between female attachment to the labor market and first and second birth risks in Finland (Vikat 2004;Jalovaara and Miettinen 2013). More generally, Matysiak, Sobotka, and Vignoli (2018) showed that fertility rates in Europe were negatively affected by the Great Recession in 2008-2014, and argued that not only the timing but the quantum of fertility may have been affected. Particularly in the Nordic countries, the ongoing decline in period fertility is puzzling because the economic recession ended years ago.…”

International Migration and Fertility Variation in Spain during the Economic Recession: A Spatial Durbin Approach

“…Several recent studies have provided evidence of fertility reductions due to high levels of unemployment and economic insecurity in a number of countries following the economic crisis of 2008 (Cherlin et al 2013;Comolli 2017;Goldstein et al 2013;Matysiak et al 2018;Schneider 2015;Sobotka et al 2011). However, far less is known about whether, and to what extent, international migration, both immigration and emigration, have affected fertility during the current long recessionary period.…”

“…We focus on Spain as a European country badly hit by the economic recession, where period fertility rates (TFRs) have exhibited a pattern of sharp decline (from 1.39 in 2008 to 1.24 in 2013, to 1.29 in 2015). Thus, fertility has returned to lowest-low levels following the economic downturn, and economic conditions, particularly unemployment rates, have been offered as the main explanation for fertility variation (Comolli 2017;Goldstein et al 2013;Matysiak et al 2018;Sobotka et al 2011). However, given the substantial migration response following the crisis (with Spain now recording net emigration, for the first time since the 1970s, and with net outflows estimated at around 70 thousand since 2012), the question insufficiently addressed by previous research is: has fertility in Spain been affected by reduced immigration and increased emigration following the economic recession and, if so, to what extent?…”

“…To date, nearly all studies on the recession and fertility in Europe have investigated associations between time trends in fertility and economic conditions at a national scale or, alternatively, have pooled data for different countries or regions in cross-national analyses (Comolli 2017;Goldstein et al 2013;Matysiak et al 2018;Sobotka et al 2011). Existing studies at a sub-national scale are predominantly focused on the US experience of fertility variation during the recession, and have examined the effect of area-level economic conditions on state-level fertility trends (Cherlin et al 2013;Schneider 2015;Schneider and Gemmill 2016).…”

Leaving and Losing a Job After Childbearing in Italy: A Comparison Between 2005 and 2012

“…Those studies" findings have highlighted the existence of a negative relation between the recessionary period and fertility levels. Indeed, according to Matysiak, Sobotka, and Vignoli (2018), TFRs started to increase around the turn of the century and peaked in 2008-2010, after which fertility declined or levelled off in most European countries, especially among young women aged 25 years or less. The fertility decline has been more pronounced in countries and regions that experienced stronger economic downturns and faster increases in unemployment, especially in Southern Europe (Lanzieri, 2013).…”