The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK

Abstract

This study offers an overview on changes in fertility plan during the COVID-19 crisis of a representative sample of the young population (18-34) in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK. Data were collected between March 27 and April 7, 2020. Our results show that fertility plans have been negatively revised in all countries, but not in the same way. In Germany and France fertility plans changed moderately, with many people still planning or postponing their decision to have a child during the 2020. In Italy, instead, the proportion of abandoners is much higher than in other countries, while comparatively it shows a lower proportion of those deciding to postpone their plans. Moreover, the demographic characteristics of the individuals seem to be associated with fertility plans in different ways across countries. In Italy, abandoners are common among individuals younger than 30 and those without a tertiary education. In Germany, abandoners are slightly more prevalent in the regions most affected by the COVID-19. In UK, fertility plans have been most frequently abandoned by individuals that expect the worse impact of the crisis on their future income. Finally, in France and Spain we did not observe a clear pattern for revision of fertility plans. These results suggest that different mechanisms are at work, due to the different economic, demographic and policy pre-crisis background and post-crisis prospects. Low-fertility contexts, in particular, appear to be more at risk of a fertility loss due to the crisis.

COVID-19 lockdowns and demographically-relevant Google Trends: A cross-national analysis

“…Likewise, the differencein-differences estimates (Table 1) are nonsignificant for both. This result is in line with findings from [9], which showed that fertility intentions during the lockdown decreased, although less so in France than Spain and Italy, mainly reflecting a postponement of fertility plans rather abandonment thereof. Notably, however, we do observe a significant 18 percent increase in such searches in France in the post-lockdown period.…”

“…As such, we expect considerable heterogeneity across countries-and, in particular, between Europe and the United States-in the degree to which individuals and families experience economic uncertainty and hardship. This heterogeneity is also likely to be reflected in differences in the magnitude and direction of patterns of relationship formation, quality, and dissolution, as well as fertility plans, as a consequence of heterogeneity in lockdowns, economic conditions, and policy responses by country [9]. Specifically, we hypothesize that lockdowns will lead to fewer demographic consequences in countries that better managed the economic fallout from the pandemic and provided a stronger financial safety net.…”

“…Thus, current scholarship has been able only to speculate about possible consequences in these domains, although insights can be gleaned from relevant historical events, for example the 2008 economic recession [5] and the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic [6][7][8]. Surveys performed during the lockdown have produced useful information about fertility intentions and changes therein as a result of the pandemic [9], but they cannot yet provide evidence about fertility realization. To gain further insight into potential future consequences of the lockdown for family demography, we use cross-national Google Trends search data to explore whether trends in searches for demographic-related terms changed during lockdowns in Europe and the United States.…”

“…Likewise, lower levels of consumer confidence are associated with lower fertility rates, with the largest association vis-à-vis first births and a smaller association for subsequent births [27]. Luppi et al's [9] survey of five European countries found evidence that the pandemic resulted in young adults reducing their fertility intentions. There is also evidence that adverse economic shocks and downturns are associated with delays or declines in entry into cohabitation and marriage [28,29].…”

Constructing personal networks in the light of COVID-19 containment measures

“…The implications of the pandemic and the associated containment measures on demography, society and economy are being the object of study for many researchers, who focused on direct consequences [15,13] as well as on indirect consequences [20,4,8]. Such implications also include impacts on the individuals' lifestyle and on their behaviors towards the community, that resulted in changes in the network of relations binding individuals to the people close to their everyday life, and in the availability of resources to exchange tangible and intangible support.…”