The future of invasive terrestrial vertebrates in Europe under climate and land-use change

Polaina, Ester; Soultan, Alaaeldin; Pärt, Tomas; Recio, Mariano R.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe95e

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Species distribution models allow us to correlate environmental conditions hypothesised to influence the presence of a certain species in a given area to estimate where it is more likely to occur (environmental suitability). We fitted SDMs for each species based on historical data (species observations and environmental variables in their original units) using the BIOMOD2 package in the R software (R Core Team, 2021; Thuiller et al., 2009), including 5 commonly used algorithms that have been shown to have good performance (Polaina et al., 2021; Valavi et al., 2022; Wisz et al., 2008): generalised linear model, GLM; generalised additive model, GAM; flexible discriminant analysis, FDA; generalised boosting model, GBM; and maximum entropy, MAXENT. Algorithms were run using default settings, apart from GAM, where we specified a smoothing term (k) of 3 – a relatively low value to limit overfitting (so‐called ‘wiggliness’).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Underprediction of extirpation and colonisation following climate and land‐use change using species distribution models

Auffret,

Nenzén,

Polaina

2024

Diversity and Distributions

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AimTo evaluate the performance of species distribution models in predicting observed colonisations, persistences and extirpations in response to changes in climate and land use over a multi‐decadal period.LocationSweden.MethodsWe use historical (early 20th century) land use and climate data to build species distribution models for 84 plant species across three provinces of Sweden. Model performance was then evaluated internally using a subset of the historical data for cross‐validation, as well as by using the models to project occurrences to the modern day and validating them with observed occurrences from 1990 to 2020. We then analysed predicted and observed occurrences in the modern period in terms of persistence, extirpation (local extinction) and colonisation in relation to species' habitat and climate associations.ResultsWe found overall high agreement between evaluation methods, although internal evaluation gave consistently higher values for model performance (using true skill statistic, TSS). Overall, extirpations were worst predicted, with on average fewer than one‐third of each species' extirpations being foreseen by the models. Colonisations were better predicted, while persistences were relatively well‐predicted. Predictive accuracy of colonisations was higher for species with relatively warmer temperature associations (climate‐driven expansion), while extirpations were better predicted in cool‐related species (retractions at cool edges). Colonisations of forest‐associated species were more common than predicted (underpredicted), despite widespread patterns of afforestation. Assessing grid‐cell level turnover, we found that in grid cells that experienced the largest changes in terms of climate and land use, predicted extirpations were less likely to have happened.Main ConclusionsWe found that commonly applied modelling approaches have limited ability to predict observed changes in species occurrences, especially extirpations. This suggests that we should take predictions of future biodiversity loss very seriously. However, the ability for species to (at least temporarily) persist in unsuitable conditions could be an opportunity for biodiversity conservation.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Underprediction of extirpation and colonisation following climate and land‐use change using species distribution models

Auffret,

Nenzén,

Polaina

2024

Diversity and Distributions

Self Cite

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“…We prepared predictions for two timelines: 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We decided to use these timelines as they are the most common frameworks for species distribution models [101][102][103].…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential European Geographical Distribution of Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Witkowski

Dyderski

Bełka

et al. 2022

Forests

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Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) is an alien ambrosia beetle from North America, that has been spreading across Europe since the 1930s. The species infests coniferous trees, excavating galleries in sapwood. However, to date very few studies have predicted changes in ambrosia beetle habitat suitability under changing climate conditions. To fill that gap in the current knowledge, we used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate areas potentially suitable for this species in Europe, both under current climate conditions and those forecasted for the years 2050 and 2070. Our analyses showed areas where the species has not been reported, though the climatic conditions are suitable. Models for the forecasted conditions predicted an increase in suitable habitats. Due to the wide range of host trees, the species is likely to spread through the Balkans, the Black Sea and Caucasus region, Baltic countries, the Scandinavian Peninsula, and Ukraine. As a technical pest of coniferous sapwood, it can cause financial losses due to deterioration in quality of timber harvested in such regions. Our results will be helpful for the development of a climate-change-integrated management strategy to mitigate potential adverse effects.

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“…As a key concept linking ecology and biogeography, niche helps in understanding the mechanisms affecting spatial and temporal species distribution patterns [19]. Niche space and its dynamics have attracted considerable attention in the prediction of the distribution patterns of species under global change scenarios through the application of ecological niche models (ENMs), which have been widely used to examine shifts in species' niches [20]. However, no evidence has shown whether the strong spread and invasion ability of desert locusts during outbreaks are accompanied by shifts in their niche.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Spread of Desert Locust Schistocerca gregagia (Orthoptera: Acrididae) under Climate Change Scenarios

Tang,

Feng,

Zong

et al. 2023

Diversity

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The desert locust Schistocerca gregagia (Forskål, 1775) is one of the most harmful migratory pests in the world, posing a major threat to agricultural production, livelihoods, and food security. Climate, land use, and topography influence the distribution of desert locusts, but few studies have integrated all the factors on a global scale to explore the suitable areas for desert locusts and the paths through which this species could potentially spread. In this study, we established ensemble distribution models to investigate the distribution patterns and driving factors of desert locusts under baseline and future scenarios; we used ensembled niche dynamic models to evaluate their niche conservation during outbreaks. The results showed that the most important factor influencing desert locust distribution is climate, especially the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the annual precipitation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter. Some areas with little or no desert locust distribution at present will be suitable for desert locusts in the future, and highly suitable contiguous areas may become the dispersal paths. The results also showed that the climatic niche of the desert locust is still conservative, which might explain why desert locusts tend to retreat after intermittent outbreaks rather than settle at the site of invasion. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the areas that are highly suitable for desert locusts, the key factors driving their outbreaks, and the shifting of their climatic niche in order to prevent desert locusts from settling in invasion areas and affecting local ecosystems and food security.

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The future of invasive terrestrial vertebrates in Europe under climate and land-use change

Cited by 9 publications

References 28 publications

Underprediction of extirpation and colonisation following climate and land‐use change using species distribution models

Underprediction of extirpation and colonisation following climate and land‐use change using species distribution models

Potential European Geographical Distribution of Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Potential Spread of Desert Locust Schistocerca gregagia (Orthoptera: Acrididae) under Climate Change Scenarios

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