Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN, and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios-optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RPC8.5)-using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: "winners"-mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, and Quercus petraea; "losers"-mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris; and alien species-Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as "winners." Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face a significant decrease in suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation.

We assessed drivers of ecological success along resource availability gradients for three invasive woody species: Prunus serotina Ehrh., Quercus rubra L. and Robinia pseudoacacia L. We aimed to check how much of invasion success, measured by invader biomass, is explained by propagule pressure and plant community invasibility. Using 3 years of observations from 372 study plots (100 m 2 each) in temperate forests of Wielkopolski National Park (Poland) we investigated the hierarchy of predictors and partial dependencies using the random forest method. Our study indicated that propagule pressure explained more variance in success of invaders than invasibility-describing availability of resources and competitors in understory vegetation. We also found different responses of seedlings and saplings, connected with dependence on stored carbohydrates, which decreased seedling responses to resource availability gradients. However, resource availability (light and leaf litter predictors) had greater influence than predictors describing understory vegetation. Based on importance and response strength the species studied may be arranged by decreasing requirements for soil fertility and acidity: P. serotina \ Q. rubra \ R. pseudoacacia, whereas for light requirements and competition vulnerability the order is: P. serotina [ Q. rubra [ R. pseudoacacia. However, low light requirements of R. pseudoacacia may be biased by high proportion of sprouts supplied by parental trees. Results provide guidelines for effective management of invasive woody species in forest ecosystems and describe complex interactions between factors studied on ecological success of invaders.

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Robinia pseudoacacia is one of the most frequent non‐native species in Europe. It is a fast‐growing tree of high economic and cultural importance. On the other hand, it is an invasive species, causing changes in soil chemistry and light regime, and consequently altering the plant communities. Previously published models developed for the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia concerned 2070, and were based mainly on data from Western and Central Europe; here we extended these findings and included additional data from Eastern Europe. To fill the gap in current knowledge of R. pseudoacacia distribution and improve the reliability of forecasts, we aimed to (i) determine the extent to which the outcome of range modeling will be affected by complementing R. pseudoacacia occurrence data with sites from Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe, (ii) identify and quantify the changes in the availability of climate niches for 2050 and 2070, and discuss their impacts on forest management and nature conservation. We showed that the majority of the range changes expected in 2070 will occur as early as 2050. In comparison to previous studies, we demonstrated a greater eastward shift of potential niches of this species and a greater decline of potential niches in Southern Europe. Consequently, future climatic conditions will likely favor the occurrence of R. pseudoacacia in Central and Northeastern Europe where this species is still absent or relatively rare. There, controlling the spread of R. pseudoacacia will require monitoring sources of invasion in the landscape and reducing the occurrence of this species. The expected effects of climate change will likely be observed 20 years earlier than previously forecasted. Hence we highlighted the urgent need for acceleration of policies aimed at climate change mitigation in Europe. Also, our results showed the need for using more complete distribution data to analyze potential niche models.

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