Agriculture is the leading driver of biodiversity loss. However, its future impact on biodiversity remains unclear, especially because agricultural intensification is often neglected, and high path-dependency is assumed when forecasting agricultural development-although the past suggests that shock events leading to considerable agricultural change occur frequently. Here, we investigate the possible impacts on biodiversity of pathways of expansion and intensification. Our pathways are not built to reach equivalent production targets, and therefore they should not be directly compared; they instead highlight areas at risk of high biodiversity loss across the entire option space of possible agricultural change. Based on an extensive database of biodiversity responses to agriculture, we find 30% of species richness and 31% of species abundances potentially lost because of agricultural expansion across the Amazon and Afrotropics. Only 21% of high-risk expansion areas in the Afrotropics overlap with protected areas (compared with 43% of the Neotropics). Areas at risk of biodiversity loss from intensification are found in India, Eastern Europe and the Afromontane region (7% species richness, 13% abundance loss). Many high-risk regions are not adequately covered by conservation prioritization schemes, and have low national conservation spending and high agricultural growth. Considering rising agricultural demand, we highlight areas where timely land-use planning may proactively mitigate biodiversity loss.

Aim: Agriculture is a key threat to biodiversity; however, its relationship with biodiversity patterns is understudied. Here, we evaluate how the extent, intensity and history of croplands relate to the global distribution of threatened mammals. We propose two hypotheses to explain these relationships: shelter, which predicts that threatened species concentrate in areas with low human land use; and threat, according to which threatened species should concentrate in areas of high human land use.Location: Global. Time period: c. 6000 BC -AD 2014. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial mammals. Methods: We used boosted regression trees (BRT) that include spatial autocorrelation to investigate the relationship between the proportion of threatened terrestrial mammals [as defined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List] and multiple metrics describing agricultural extent, intensity and history derived from remote sensing data and statistical projections. Data were analysed with a grain size of c. 110 km 3 110 km at both global and biogeographical-realm scales.Results: Agricultural extent and intensity were the most relevant indicator types, with specific metrics important for each realm. Forest cover (extent) was identified as important in several regions. Tropical regions in early agricultural transition stages (e.g. frontier landscapes) were consistent with the shelter hypothesis, whereas patterns found for regions in later stages (e.g. intensified agricultural landscapes) were mostly found in temperate regions and agreed with the threat hypothesis. Main conclusions: These results highlight the need to consider multiple land-use indicators when addressing threats to biodiversity and to separately assess areas with divergent human and ecological histories in global-scale studies. Different relationships associated with different agricultural transition stages suggest that high concentrations of threatened species may have contrasting meanings in different regions worldwide. We propose a new unifying hypothesis following a cyclic relationship along agricultural transition stages resulting in alternating negative and positive relationships between agriculture and threatened species richness. K E Y W O R D S agricultural transition, agriculture, conservation, IUCN Red List, land-use extent, land-use intensity, shelter, terrestrial mammals, threat Global Ecol Biogeogr. 2018;27:647-657.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/geb

Multiple environmental factors are known to shape species distributions at the global scale, including climate and topography, but understanding current extents of occurrence and biodiversity patterns requires considering anthropogenic factors as well. Numerous studies have explored the relationship between contemporary human activities and different biodiversity metrics, but the influence of past activities, such as land‐use, remains poorly understood despite being one of the oldest human impacts. Here we evaluate the role of past land‐use modifications in the current distribution and conservation status of mammals worldwide using spatial data characterizing human land use from ca BC 6000 to ca AD 2000. First, we applied a clustering method that revealed three generalized past human land‐use trajectories that represent low‐, recently‐ and steadily‐used areas widely represented across the globe. Second, we fitted boosted regression trees to predict total and threatened mammalian richness, globally and within trajectory‐clusters, testing the role of environmental factors and multiple human land‐use metrics reflecting: total used area at different time spans, rates of land‐use change, and the occurrence of remarkable land‐use shifts. Environmental factors were identified as the main correlates of current mammalian richness, but several proposed metrics of past land‐use were also relevant predictors. Overall, these results highlight the likely existence of a land‐use legacy in some regions of the world that has influenced the distribution of extant mammals, particularly of those currently classified as threatened. Even if we cannot change that legacy, our results show that we need to account for past human impacts to understand present biodiversity patterns and, arguably, to guide future actions.

word count: 301 Main text word count: 5362 Number of references: 62Article type: Biodiversity Research and Reviews 2 Abstract AimTo propose a general approach to spatially synthesize known predictors of vulnerability at the species level in order to identify areas directly associated with specific conservation problems. Under this problem-detection framework, the coincidence or divergence of main strengths and weaknesses can be used to propose tailor-made conservation strategies. This approach is illustrated for terrestrial mammal species evaluating two of their main components of vulnerability: life-history traits and land use pressure. LocationGlobal. MethodsWe determine, at the species level, the relationships between extinction risk and two well-known predictors of vulnerability: life-history traits (intrinsic) and land use (extrinsic). Transferring these findings into the spatial domain, we identify the areas of the world where one of these two facets is predominant and those areas where both coincide. ResultsThe proposed approach allows us to recognize four types of areas: 1) double-susceptibility areas:where both the characteristics of the species and the existing human activities pose a threat, therefore the simultaneous management of both species/habitats and human activities are needed; 2) intrinsicsusceptibility areas: where species are naturally fragile and human presence is scarce, thus speciesspecific management plans would be particularly efficient; 3) extrinsic-susceptibility areas: where human pressure is high but species are not intrinsically vulnerable; which requires special attention 3 to human activities; and 4) low-susceptibility areas: where there are not remarkable threats for existing terrestrial mammals, which additionally are not particularly fragile. Main conclusionsOur approach can spatially synthesize known predictors of vulnerability identifying areas where different factors predispose species to become extinct. This method builds on conservation planning approaches by targeting actions based on known strengths and weaknesses of a given area, and offering a new implementation of comparative studies of extinction risk. This approach may be applied to different species and to particular regions, focusing on different drivers, and complemented by incorporating social and economic trade-offs.

This study aims to identify environmentally suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (iAtV) in europe in a transparent and replicable way. We used species distribution models and publicly-available data from GBif to predict environmental suitability and to identify hotspots of iAtV accounting for knowledge gaps in their distributions. to deal with the ecological particularities of invasive species, we followed a hierarchical approach to estimate the global climatic suitability for each species and incorporated this information into refined environmental suitability models within europe. combined predictions on environmental suitability identified potential areas of IATV concentrations or hotspots. Uncertainty of predictions identified regions requiring further survey efforts for species detection. Around 14% of Europe comprised potential hotspots of IATV richness, mainly located in northern France, UK, Belgium and the Netherlands. IATV coldspots covered ~ 9% of Europe, including southern Sweden and Finland, and northern Germany. Most of Europe (~ 77% area) comprised uncertain suitability predictions, likely caused by a lack of data. priorities on prevention and control should focus on potential hotspots where harmful impacts might concentrate. Promoting the collection of presence data within data-deficient areas is encouraged as a core strategy against iAtVs. Invasive alien species (IAS) are the second greatest cause of global biodiversity loss and endangerment, after habitat destruction, and pose an increasing threat to human economies and native ecosystems 1,2. The varied insidious impacts caused by IAS have prolifically been reported for island ecosystems due to the particular fragility of these environments 3. However, alien species have invaded all kind of ecosystems and their impacts at large continental scales are of great concern for the conservation of natural and human systems 4. In the United States alone, IAS are considered a threat for 42% of endangered species, and involve annual costs of U.S. $137 billion 5. In Europe, IAS are responsible for estimated damage costs (i.e. excluding management costs) of €10-20 billion per year 6. Approximately 14,000 alien species were reported in 2015 in Europe, of which ~ 10-15% are considered invasive 7. However, the potential economic and ecological impact of about 90% of these species remains unknown 8. Therefore, improving knowledge about invasion patterns, risks, and impacts is still required. Control of IAS is included as a priority to halt biodiversity loss in global initiatives, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity 9. Europe has specific legislation on IAS prevention and management; however, transboundary cooperation is necessary to guarantee their compliance and effectiveness, including that from bordering non-EU countries 10,11. To reduce the expansion and associated deleterious impacts of IAS, it is of critical importance to identify and characterize priority areas of management that include hotspots of a...

Citation: Polaina, E., M. González-Suárez, and E. Revilla. 2015. Socioeconomic correlates of global mammalian conservation status. Ecosphere 6(9):146. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00505.1Abstract. The main causes of biodiversity decline are related to human use of resources, which is ultimately triggered by the socioeconomic decisions made by individuals and nations. Characterizing the socioeconomic attributes of areas in which biodiversity is most threatened can help us identify decisions and conditions that promote the presence or absence of threats and potentially suggest more sustainable strategies. In this study we explored how diverse indicators of social and economic development correlate with the conservation status of terrestrial mammals within countries explicitly exploring hypothesized linear and quadratic relationships. First, comparing countries with and without threatened mammals we found that those without threatened species are a disparate group formed by European countries and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with little in common besides their slow population growth and a past of human impacts. Second, focusing on countries with threatened mammals we found that those with a more threatened mammalian biota have mainly rural populations, are predominantly exporters of goods and services, receive low to intermediate economic benefits from international tourism, and have medium to high human life expectancy. Overall, these results provide a comprehensive characterization of the socioeconomic profiles linked to mammalian conservation status of the world's nations, highlighting the importance of transborder impacts reflected by the international flux of goods, services and people. Further studies would be necessary to unravel the actual mechanisms and threats that link these socioeconomic profiles and indicators with mammalian conservation. Nevertheless, this study presents a broad and complete characterization that offers testable hypotheses regarding how socioeconomic development associates with biodiversity.

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Predicting suitable locations for invasive alien terrestrial vertebrates (IATV) under different scenarios of global change is essential for local and transboundary management aimed to prevent the spread of invasions. Using a spatial modelling approach adapted to invasive species, we identify range-shifts in suitable areas for 15 of the most harmful IATV in Europe, considering future climate and land-use changes. We predict range contractions for seven of these IATV, expansion for four, and inconclusive outputs for the rest. For most Europe, future aggregated distributions show stable or decreasing trends in total IATV richness. Still, specific regions will increase their suitability for additional IATVs, including some protected and last-of-the-wild areas. Our results are informative for early decision-making and long-term strategies to prevent negative effects of IATV. Our approach is based on publicly available data, so predictions can be revised as new data becomes available.