The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle Is Persistent: Evidence from Stochastic and Nonparametric Cointegration Tests

Abstract

An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. We document that even after accounting for nonstationarity, nonnormality, and heteroskedasticity using parametric and nonparametric tests on data for over a quarter century, U.S. dollar forward rates for the major currencies (the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the German mark) are generally not rational forecasts of future spot rates. These findings deepen the forward exchange rate bias puzzle, especially as these markets are the most liquid foreign exchange markets with very low trading costs. Copyright (c) 2009, The Eastern Finance Association.

Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity and Related Puzzles

“…Those expected returns produce forward bias and risk premiums even when expectations are rational. 4 Whatever the interpretation of p t , Equation 3implies Equation (4).…”