The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products of Turkey using Box-Jenkins method

Abstract

In this study, it was aimed to determine the most suitable time series models with Box-Jenkins method, which was the most widely used in prediction studies. Export and import values were predicted by 2020 with the most suitable models. The data used in this study were obtained from the Turkey Statistical Institute. Data were monthly data covering from January 2003 to December 2014. Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) criteria were taken into consideration when selecting the best Box-Jenkins models. Also, in order to test the success of forecasting of the models, Root mean Error Square (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used. As a result of the analyzes, it was determined that the most suitable models for export and import data were ARIMA (2,1,0) (0,0,1)12 and ARIMA(3,1,2)(1,0,1)12. It was predicted that the rate of exports meeting imports in paper and paper products of Turkey will be approximately 0.86 in 2020.

Simulation Modeling of the Czech Republic Economy With a Development Forecasting

“…On the other hand, import is explored and forecasted in [Grimme 2021]. Both referred macro indicators are predicted by [Ersen 2019].…”

Forecasting Exports and Imports by using Autoregressive (AR) with Seasonal Dummies and Box-Jenkins Approaches: A Case of Pakistan

“…Gravity and endogenous growth models also contributed to the theoretical advances along with the theory of competitive advantage. Examples of empirical foreign trade studies, relevant to the presented work, include Ersen et al (2019), Kitworawut and Rungreunganun (2019), Sokolov-Mladenovic et al (2016), Kankal and Uzlu (2017), and Anderton, Baltagi, Skudelni, and Sousa (2005) among others. The authors of the first study model the Canadian foreign trade flows as a function of the agents' decisions in solving a dynamic optimization problem.…”

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